(The data estimate is inaccurate, but the logic is correct) Berkshire Hathaway #Buffett

has already made major adjustments to its portfolio in preparation for the crisis

Portfolio has become a defensive strategy:

🔹 Increased cash in large quantities: Cash holdings soared to a record $16.78 billion, up 31% from $12.85 billion in the previous quarter.

🔹 Large-scale reduction of technology and bank stocks: The crisis will start with commercial banks bursting due to liquidity squeeze caused by high interest rates, and the market value of technology stocks will shrink severely.

🔹 Increased holdings of energy stocks: Investment in Chevron and Occidental Petroleum increased to more than $3.3 billion, increasing the layout in the energy field. Oil prices may still have room to rise because they can become a safe haven in the crisis. This also indirectly shows concerns about the resetting of the value of the US dollar.

🔹 Increased holdings of Treasury bonds: Treasury bond holdings reached $13.34 billion. It can be seen that this crisis will not spread into a US debt crisis, and US bonds are still a good safe-haven asset.

💰 Because Berkshire Hathaway has a large amount of funds, it has to start liquidation positions one quarter in advance. What we retail investors have to gamble on now is whether the Fed can release a small amount of liquidity before the recession. The BTFP launched a year ago due to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank injected ample liquidity into the market; after the BTFP was stopped last month, the biggest variable is whether the Fed will launch an alternative plan.

🏧Conclusion:

-Crisis｜Recession is not far away, and risky assets will bleed, including crypto assets.

-The violent bull market of Bitcoin occurred after the Fed lowered interest rates to the bottom after the crisis broke out.

-The last wave of gains: If the Fed provides liquidity for a soft landing, cryptocurrencies will have another wave of gains, and then plunge with the crisis. A hard landing is likely to be inevitable based on historical data.