#BTC走势分析 #5月市场关键事件
If there is no major negative event later, the market will slowly get back on track
Friday's unemployment rate exceeded expectations, and the non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly cold, which gave the market a re-pricing of the Fed's expectations of a rate cut (pulling back to September in November and restoring the expectation of two rate cuts this year). A comprehensive weak data gave the market optimism.
At present, the only obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates is inflation. Ango believes that after experiencing three rebounds in inflation data, the next CPI data will most likely resume the downward trend, and the market will be pulled back to the track of interest rate cuts. I think the previous declines, whether in terms of magnitude or time, are sufficient. The next rise in the market is likely to follow the expectations of interest rate cuts or halving expectations (halved on the supply side, and demand on the demand side begins to appear)
It is better to believe in the rise before the interest rate cut than to believe in the rise after the interest rate cut, because the market trades on expectations, and only expectations can drive prices up. On the contrary, it becomes negative after the implementation, and often usher in a sharp drop adjustment. According to the Fed's interest rate cut path, it is likely to be a rise when the expectation of interest rate cuts is hyped - a negative drop when the interest rate cut is implemented - after removing the leverage, the Fed continues to cut interest rates, the market begins to warm up - and continues to rise until the bull market ends.
Ango's method of judging the end of the bull market mainly depends on the emotional side, or when the cycle runs to that position, for example, when some garbage copycats can rise several times, then it should be the final stage of madness, which means retreat.
