Macroeconomics and news:
Tonight's theme, needless to say, is Powell's speech after the Fed's monetary decision. The interest rate decision basically does not need to consider too much change, and maintaining the interest rate unchanged is still the theme. As for the subsequent speech, the current risk market expects a hawkish speech, and the US stock market has made advance defense preparations.
So, once Powell meets market expectations and speaks hawkishly, continuing to suppress the market's optimistic sentiment of interest rate cuts, the Fed's expectations for future interest rate cuts will be reduced again, and the market sentiment will be suppressed again under the premise of insufficient liquidity. Although it will not cause a rapid decline in the short term, the overall shock decline or negative decline will continue. Of course, US tech stocks are exerting their strength. Once the hawkish speech ends, US stocks may usher in a wave of rebounds before the closing, or even close higher. The crypto market sentiment will be suppressed again.
On the contrary, if Powell's speech is not considered hawkish, then the current market expectations are basically positive, the US stock market will rebound more significantly, and whether the crypto market will follow the rebound and how strong the rebound will be is currently unknown. At least from the data, funds in the crypto market are flowing out. Once the US stock market rebounds, it doesn't matter how high Bitcoin rebounds. As long as funds can flow back, it's a good thing.
As for the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and Powell's speech, a simple summary and prediction is to maintain the interest rate unchanged. Because of inflationary pressure, high interest rates will continue to be maintained, but once key data shows a large recession, a moderate interest rate cut will be considered. It's all bullshit.
The key issue is that as long as the United States does not encounter an extremely dangerous economic or financial crisis, it will basically continue to maintain the strength of the US dollar and US bonds under high pressure. This is the only strong bargaining chip the United States currently has. Once it involves interest rate cuts, the status of the US dollar and US bonds will decline, the United States will face a large outflow of assets, and the confidence in the US dollar will decline on a large scale. At the same time, the United States' own economic problems will be infinitely magnified.
At the same time, if nothing unexpected happens, combined with tomorrow's employment data, the Federal Reserve will show the benign state of the US economy to the outside world, that is, the possibility of a "soft landing" in the future.
I won't wait for Powell to talk, I'll go to bed after class.
#大盘走势
