There is still more than a month to go before the Litecoin halving, and the current price is around $96. Historically, we can see that before such events, the price of Litecoin usually reaches a peak.
But this time, things may be different. The current LTCUSD trend is showing more similarities to the last time, just as it preceded the incredible breakout. So, with a similar technical setup playing out again, will the altcoin surge like it did last time? Or, like past halvings, has the market already peaked?
Litecoin Halving Paradox
If you ask the average Bitcoin enthusiast, they will tell you the same thing: “Wait until after the halving.” After observing several cycles, most people believe that the Bitcoin halving event itself drives the price up.
Meanwhile, in the Litecoin market, people have different views on the halving event. They believe that it is just a "sell the news" event because the price peaked before the halving and then stagnated. However, Litecoin's halving also has the mechanism of supply reduction, but it has been ignored because there is no obvious positive effect. This leads to an ironic situation that the halving either has an effect on the price or it has no effect. Instead, the behavior of the price is closely related to each halving, which may be just a correlation rather than a causal relationship.
If this is indeed the case, the market could face a situation where Litecoin rebounds shortly after the halving, while Bitcoin peaks before the halving - a scenario few would have expected. This view is supported by a range of technicals.
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Why LTC technical indicators tell a completely different story
There are some signs that Litecoin may continue to rise. The first is the monthly stochastic indicator for LTCUSD, which has reached its all-time high since 2017, after a surge of more than 8,000%. The stochastic indicator is turning higher, indicating that the trend is becoming stronger. To push the price further higher, we need to see a similar technical setup.
Meanwhile, there are other technical signals converging with this. For example, the LMMACD is showing a bullish crossover, and the histogram is showing growing momentum for several consecutive months. Litecoin has also managed to recover to the base line of the Bollinger Bands, which is the 20-month simple moving average. If it can hold this position, the price of Litecoin may reach a peak. However, the range may need to tighten further before price volatility resumes.
If in the next few months, the price of Litecoin can close above the upper Bollinger Band, and the LMACD indicator of LTC can return to above the zero line and then adjust the overbought state again, then Litecoin may usher in two rapid rises.