The hotly discussed Hong Kong Big Pie and Yitai spot ETFs officially started trading today. When interviewed by Huaxia Fund Manager and Family Wealth Manager Zhu Haokang, he even made a bold statement:
In his opinion, the first trading day in Hong Kong today will exceed the single-day inflow of spot ETFs on the day of the first launch of Da Piaoliang. It should be noted that the issuance scale of Da Piaoliang on the first trading day was US$125 million.
What gave this executive such confidence? It turned out that he believed that compared with the ETF of Da Piaoliang, Hong Kong has a physical creation and redemption mechanism while Da Piaoliang does not, which is a clear advantage.
Unfortunately, he overlooked the fact that mainland investors are prohibited from participating in buying and selling after the launch. Without the mainland's army of "leeks", it is obviously unrealistic to rely solely on Hong Kong to support the scene. As Tangren had already given the answer in an article a week ago, it is obviously unrealistic.
Sure enough, this supervisor was slapped in the face not long after he made the statement. As of today's midday closing, the total transaction volume of Hong Kong's Big Pancake and Auntie spot ETF products was only 49.45 million Hong Kong dollars, which is a long way from 125 million!
Of course, there may be more funds flowing in later, but don't hold too high hopes. This can be seen from the fact that the Hong Kong ETF was listed this morning. The bitcoin price only rebounded symbolically for a while and then died down. The current Hong Kong ETF has not yet had an impact on the market.
However, Tangren believes that the Hong Kong ETF is a trigger that will accelerate the rapid emergence of ETFs in other regions. For example, Morgan Stanley has already submitted an application to the SEC to obtain Bitcoin ETF exposure for its 12 funds.
The funds manage about $8 trillion in client assets, making Morgan Stanley the world's largest investment adviser, and are also seen as a positive sign that a second wave of ETF buying demand is accelerating, not just in the United States and Hong Kong.
There is also the London Stock Exchange in the UK, which will open spot bitcoin ETN trading on May 28. Australia also has the latest ETF developments. According to Bloomberg, the Australian Stock Exchange ASX has planned to launch the first batch of approved spot bitcoin by the end of 2024.
ETFASX is the largest stock exchange in Australia, with about 80% of local transactions taking place here. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a national competition, which is certainly beneficial to the long-term development of Bitcoin.
Back to yesterday's ETF data, adding the data of Hong Kong ETF and European Canadian ETF, there was still a net outflow yesterday, with an overall net outflow of 823 ETFs, about 52 million US dollars, and BlackRock still handed in a blank paper.
At present, the market's capital situation has not improved, and investors are cautious about the future. Whether there will be a turnaround in the short term depends on this week's interest rate decision and the release of non-farm data.
Interpretation of the disk:
The Hong Kong Bitcoin ETF assisted Bitcoin. Although it rose slightly for a moment, it still failed to regain the key position of 65,000. The monthly line closed negatively, which is basically certain. This is a good thing. Bitcoin has avoided eight consecutive positive monthly lines and given the market appropriate time to cool down.
The current support level is still at 62,000 and the resistance is at 65,000-66,000. Fluctuations will occur on May 2 and May 3. There is no good way to predict the Fed’s speech and non-agricultural data, so let’s wait patiently.
The recent market has been fluctuating between 60,000 and 70,000. Tangren’s view: Every pullback near 60,000 is an opportunity to buy at the bottom and increase spot positions. At the same time, May may be the last time to pick up people at a low level before the bull market.
Based on past experience, Tangren's judgment is that the decline in May will be limited, and the scenario is likely to be a downward trend followed by an upward trend. If a second bottoming out occurs in May to confirm the bottom and stop falling and stabilize, it will most likely usher in a major upward wave.
Currently, the support level of Bitcoin is at 62,000 and the resistance is at 65,000-66,000. Fluctuations will occur on May 2 and May 3. What we need to do now is to wait for the speech of the Federal Reserve and the release of non-agricultural data.
Auntie: Erbing was strong for a day and brought the whole market to life, and then he started to lose his temper and smashed the market madly, causing the whole market to collapse. It is true that the second brother is the reason for his success and failure. I thought that with the frequent good news, Auntie would take the opportunity to stand at the position of 3550, but it turned out that behind the good news was a big trap where dog dealers took the opportunity to sell goods. However, partners who hold spot goods do not need to worry at all. Tangren is still optimistic about Auntie's performance in the later period.
As for copycats, except for the highly hyped meme series which still has some profit margin, other copycats have already shown a trend of bottoming out for the second time. Once the bottoming out is completed, there is a possibility of an outbreak at any time. Therefore, those who are optimistic about the copycats can ambush and prepare in advance.
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