Veteran trader Peter Brandt has delved into Bitcoin's price action in a recent analysis, noting that the cryptocurrency may have reached its current cycle high. Brandt said Bitcoin's price is showing signs of "fading," indicating that the momentum of its multi-year bull cycle is waning.
“Is there a historical sign that Bitcoin has peaked? It’s called a taper — and it describes Bitcoin,” Brandt wrote. He further explained, “The fact is that over the years, Bitcoin’s bull cycles have lost a lot of momentum… I don’t like seeing a taper happen to Bitcoin — after all, Bitcoin is one of my largest personal investments.”
Brandt summarized the history of Bitcoin’s bull run and found that the growth in earnings has gradually diminished:
The first bull market cycle was from December 21, 2009 to June 6, 2011, when the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed 3,191 times, an astonishing growth.
Next is the period from November 14, 2011 to November 25, 2013, which saw a smaller but still impressive increase of 572 times.
From August 17, 2015 to December 18, 2017, the increase further narrowed to 122 times.
The most recent bull market cycle was from December 10, 2018 to November 8, 2021, with an increase of only 22 times.
Based on historical data analysis, Brandt believes that this round of Bitcoin cycle starting on November 21, 2022 may rise about 4.5 times from the lowest point, and the highest point is expected to be close to $72,723. It should be noted that the price of $73,835 recorded on March 14, 2024 is already close to this peak. Brandt cautiously pointed out that "the increase in each bull market cycle is about 20% of the previous cycle, showing a large loss of energy."
In his analysis, Brandt did not shy away from discussing the impact of Bitcoin’s halving events on the price. These events have historically been the cause of significant price increases. Still, he stressed the undeniable existence of the decay pattern: “But now, we need to deal with the fact of exponential decay. It’s already happening. It’s real. You may not want to believe it, but I think there’s a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle.”
In one exchange, Brandt responded to a counter-analysis by fellow analyst @Giovanni35084111, who argued that Bitcoin follows a power law over time, suggesting that it has the potential to continue to grow despite observed recessions. Brandt acknowledged this. “Pretty thorough analysis,” Brandt commented.
@Giovanni35084111’s analysis not only takes into account the cyclical trends in Bitcoin prices, but also proposes a structured forecasting model by studying the deviations from the power law at specific time intervals, especially during halving events. This approach can predict systematic patterns in Bitcoin price movements and emphasizes the bullish outlook. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin prices will rise significantly, and is expected to reach between $210,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Speaking later, Brandt highlighted his main forecast that the bull market will continue until September/October 2025. He explained, "I have more faith in a report I published in February. Here is a chart from that analysis - forecasting a bull market until September/October 2025," indicating that his views are influenced by changing market data and theoretical models.
At press time, BTC is trading at $62,450.
Disclaimer: The information provided reflects the personal opinions of the author and does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice.
