April 29, 2024

Yesterday, BTC showed a downward trend, with capital flow resistance between $64,273 and $65,246. It rose to $64,370 during the day driven by the rebound of ETH, but fell back under the capital flow resistance.

Currently, it is still oscillating between the test of the $62,000 area and the rebound to above $63,000, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations between contraction positions. Yesterday, the net outflow of funds was about $536 million.

On April 27, the short-term trends of BTC and ETH diverged. The capital flow of ETH turned to support, and BTC encountered resistance. The short-term continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is expected that today's data range will be limited to $66,429-60,306.

The resistance level is $66,439 (if the breakthrough is maintained for 2-3 days, the market will strengthen), and the key support level is $61,146 (with dual attributes: the price may fall sharply after the breakthrough, and it will rebound strongly after holding); the key technical support level moved down to $58,906.

Other data show that the resistance of capital flow in the range of 64231-64926 US dollars is weak, the bearish sentiment is slightly dominant, the short-term fluctuation range is narrowed, and the price fluctuation is narrowed.

The market is not far from a breakthrough, and it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough/breakdown of key levels. The long-term trend is still bullish, and there are buying opportunities when there is a sharp correction and close to key support levels.

In terms of macroeconomics, the US core PCE price index in March released on Friday rose 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed to December, and the current expected rate cut for the whole year is less than 35bps.

The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on May 2, and Friday's non-farm payrolls data will be crucial. If the data exceeds expectations or is close to the previous value, the Federal Reserve may consider taking more radical policy options, otherwise it may maintain the status quo for a longer period of time.