On-chain indicators as well as technical data suggest a decline in the token’s price.
The EMAs formed a death cross, which suggests that DOGE could drop below $0.12.
The 90-day MCA increased, indicating that the coin was facing selling pressure.
On April 27, Dogecoin [DOGE] attempted to revisit $0.17, but the 4-hour chart showed that the $0.15 resistance level paused the move. As a result, the coin’s price fell back to $0.14.
But Dogecoin’s challenge seems to be more than just rejection. AMBCrypto discovered this after checking the exponential moving average (EMA). For those who are not used to it, the EMA measures the direction of the trend over a period of time.
No buyers found
According to our analysis, the 50 EMA (yellow) crossed the 20 EMA (yellow) on April 24, suggesting a bearish trend. Since then, the EMA’s stance has not changed.
This trend is also known as a death cross, which means that the price of DOGE is more likely to face a sharp correction. The Elder Force Index (EFI) confirms this potential.
The EFI tracks buy and sell activity in the market. At press time, the EFI on the DOGE/USD 4-hour chart is flat, indicating a severe lack of trading activity for Dogecoin.
Furthermore, the Fibonacci indicator suggests that Dogecoin could crash. This is because of the location of the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which is also marked as the golden ratio.
As of the time of writing, the 1.618 Fib is positioned at $0.12. This suggests that the next support for Dogecoin could be located in this area. If the bulls can hold the support, DOGE could bounce back and move towards $0.16.
However, failure to protect the $0.12 support level from bears could eventually lead the coin to $0.10. Despite DOGE’s decline, on-chain data shows that 76.66% of the total supply is in profit.
Heat hits DOGE
The ratio could be related to the coin’s 90-day performance. According to AMBCrypto’s assessment of the market, the coin price has increased by 83.65%.
High profit supply is not always a good sign for cryptocurrencies. This is because there is a high chance that some participants will take profits, especially if the previous bullish momentum slows down.
If this happens, DOGE’s price could drop below $0.12 and supply profit could fall below 70%. Based on the Mean Coin Age (MCA), data from Santiment shows a surge in this metric.
MCA is the average age of all tokens on the blockchain. This metric is correlated with price. If MCA decreases, it means that a large amount of new coins have been accumulated and sent to cold wallets.
Realistic or not, this is the market cap of DOGE in terms of BTC
If this is the case, the short-term forecast for DOGE would be consistent with an uptick. But the coins are older, suggesting that many of the older coins have been moved.
In terms of price, this suggests that selling pressure and movement may be occurring in tandem with asset liquidations.
