Will Bitcoin fall below $60,000
In the past month, whenever Bitcoin dropped to around $60,000, there would always be mysterious funds involved to protect the market, and then the market would miraculously bottom out and rebound. For example, after Bitcoin fell to $60,770 on March 20, the group of whales holding more than 0.1% of the currency increased their holdings by 13,620 bitcoins, allowing the $60,000 mark to be maintained. Similarly, on April 18, after Bitcoin quickly dropped to $59,600, this group again significantly increased its holdings by 19,760 bitcoins, and the market immediately stabilized and began to rebound. All signs indicate that the super main force has taken $60,000 as the bottom line for defense. So, will $60,000 fall below?
Judging from the quality of the rebound, Bitcoin's defense of $60,000 is not impregnable. The main reasons are as follows:
1. As the market continues to rebound, the USDT premium rate has dropped from 3.2% on April 18 to 1.4% on April 24. During this period, the average USDT lending rate on CEX has dropped from 16% to 3.5%. It is particularly noteworthy that OKX, which previously had a USDT lending rate of more than 40% for a long time, has now dropped its lending rate to 1%. These changes indicate that the inflow of OTC funds and the enthusiasm for using leverage in the market are declining significantly.
2. During the rebound, the funding rate of Bitcoin perpetual contracts has continued to decline and has now entered a negative state, which is the first time since October 2023. This also shows that the sentiment of futures traders has gradually become cautious.
3. Unlike the previous market style led by AI and DePin, this round of rebound is mainly driven by MEME coins, especially the new MEME coins (PEPE, WIF, etc.), so the market's money-making effect is lackluster. This makes people wonder whether the activity of MEME coin is a trick of the main force to maintain the popularity of the market at a very small cost.
Based on the above three points, we can conclude that although the main force is determined to support the bottom, it has no intention to raise the price of the currency, and its operation is more of selling high and buying low within the range. When the rebound is difficult to form a joint force, the resistance of the bulls cannot escape the fate of further decline.
On April 24, the US SEC solicited public opinions on BlackRock's revised Ethereum spot ETF proposal. On the same day, the Ethereum ETF launched by China Asset Management (Hong Kong), Harvest International, and Bosera International was approved by the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission.The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's preemptive launch of the Ethereum ETF is considered to be a first-hand prediction, which has led to a sudden increase in market expectations for the approval of the Ethereum ETF in May.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet suspected to belong to Justin Sun has transferred $787 million in USDT to Binance in the Tron network since March 31. On the same day, an unknown wallet was created on the Ethereum network and withdrew $96.8 million worth of stablecoins from Binance. Since then, this mysterious wallet has begun to purchase Ethereum on Binance and decentralized exchanges, purchasing a total of 127,388 ETH, worth approximately $405.19 million, with an average purchase price of $3,172.
In addition, Justin Sun's wallet also purchased 168,369 ETH from Binance and DEX between February 12 and February 24, with a total value of approximately $487 million and an average purchase price of $2,894. The trading patterns of the two wallets are highly similar, which means that they are likely controlled by Justin Sun. If both wallets belong to Sun Yuchen, then since February 12, Sun Yuchen has purchased a total of 295,757 ETH, with a total investment of US$891 million.
Judging from Sun Yuchen's past on-chain operation records, he has extremely accurate timing in escaping the market at high points and buying at low points, and his winning rate in Ethereum band operations is more than 80%. Therefore, Sun Yuchen's sudden large-scale purchase is likely to have obtained some important information in advance.
However, in the short term, the possibility of Ethereum ETF passing in May is not great, mainly for the following two reasons: First, shortly after Ethereum's PoS upgrade, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler classified the staking behavior of the PoS chain as securities and filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and Kraken, which did not register to conduct business staking business. Although Gary Gensler has publicly stated that ETH is centralized enough, so far, the SEC has not given a review opinion that ETH is not a security. 2. According to Reuters, the recent talks between VanEck, ARK and other issuers and the SEC were not smooth, and the two sides have not yet formally negotiated on the issuance and management details of the ETH ETF. Therefore, the current large-scale purchases by large funds are more based on long-term layout.
In terms of operation, although the bull market has not yet ended, whether the technical indicators are close to the limit (7 consecutive positive monthly lines) or the floating profit scale is too large, Bitcoin urgently needs to undergo a thorough wash to correct the excessively high indicators and optimize the structure of chips.With the increasing pressure of capital outflow and the gradual decline of the money-making effect in the market, it is likely that Bitcoin will find new support below 60,000.
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