Since the credibility of the data of the US Bureau of Labor has declined since last year, we usually pay more attention to the data provided by the economics professors of the University of Michigan.
According to the April consumer confidence index provided by the University of Michigan, the reduction in consumer desire is conducive to reducing inflationary pressure.
However, whether the reduction in data can change the Fed's trend is still a matter of debate. Before the established goals are achieved, the Fed dare not easily cut interest rates, because once the interest rate cuts, its own economic risks will be directly exposed.
Therefore, the United States currently needs to show the healthy development of the economy and a healthy ecology to the outside world, while continuing to maintain the dominance of the US dollar and US bonds with high interest rates. Only after the possibility of achieving the established goals or landing properly increases will it choose to open the mouth to cut interest rates.
Slowly accept the torture. At the same time, in terms of geopolitics, Russia directly announced to the outside world that if Israel takes retaliatory actions against Iran, Russia will directly exit. The NATO military exercise will end at the end of May, and the movements after the end will become more sensitive. Will it be completed and each will go back to its own home? Or will it directly intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian struggle?
In a world of great contention, there must be chaos. It seems that we will face a period of torture this year. From the perspective of risk market investors, we hope that Blinken can reach an effective negotiation with both sides this time, but from a personal perspective, we cannot let the Americans off easily this time.
