Bitcoin moved within the range of 62794-65297 during the day
At the time of writing the Review, the price of the main cryptocurrency was 64220
Market capitalization 2.30 trillion, Bitcoin dominance index 55.03%, fear index 70
The S&P 500 went below 5000 during the session yesterday, but closed at 5048 (minus 0.46%). Company reports after the market closed brought positive results: post-market MSFT was up by 4.4%, GOOGL was up by 11.59%. Intel is in the red by 7.7% after the report, but its influence on the market is significantly less than MSFT or GOOGL.
That’s why S&P 500 futures are now above 5100.
The dollar index fell to 105.67B and the 10-year bond yield was 4.69%
Today the main topic for the market will be the PCE Price index (at 15-30 Moscow time), and inflation expectations (17-00 Moscow time). High inflation is a factor that makes the tasks facing the Fed unsolvable by economic methods (the rate cannot be kept at a high level because -due to the debt crisis and weakening of the economy, but it cannot be lowered due to inflation). Therefore, an increase in PCE will be negative for the markets.
With Bitcoin, everything is the same - a narrow range and minimal volatility. Within the large range of 59000-73777, Bitcoin formed a small range with a lower boundary at 63000-62800 and an upper boundary at 67000-67200, and has been in this small range for a week now. From 68K to 74K - one large stop zone and a huge volume of potential liquidations for those who like to short Bitcoin. And you just need a good reason to move.
Whether this will be the reason for the start of ETF trading for Bitcoin and Ether in Hong Kong, or whether this event will become a disappointment and a reason for a short-term loss, depends on the trading volumes in the first couple of days.
Yesterday there was an outflow of 217.6 million from American BTC-ETFs. Why did record volumes jump into ETFs at a price above 70K, but there was an outflow below 65K?
Firstly, deferred demand is more or less satisfied within 3 months of the tools’ operation.
Currently, the largest gold ETF has 57 billion in assets.
And the BTC-ETF is 54 billion. Only the gold ETF has been operating since 2004, and the BTC-ETF has been running for just over 3 months. So most of those who want to get into the topic right now have already done so. New inflows will come with the appearance of news about Bitcoin updating its highs.
But isn’t it clear that when Bitcoin is below 65K, it is much more interesting to enter than when Bitcoin is above 70K? And the longer nothing happens to Bitcoin, the less time is left before active action begins?
Why do people behave irrationally, without understanding the obvious?
Because the market crowd does not use the brain for its intended purpose, but is guided by emotions. If the asset grows, people buy it, and the higher the price, the more purchases.
Fall or stagnation - they drain instead of buying.
Secondly, do you imagine retail buyers of BTC-ETF? If a person did not buy Bitcoin before 2024, but waited for the launch of an ETF, this already says a lot about him (alas, not in favor of the ability to act rationally in the field of finance).
Also today there will be an expiration of BTC and ETH options on the Deribit exchange.
The priority option for today is Bitcoin in the range with the lower limit at 61000-59000, and the upper limit at 67000-67200
An alternative option is to consolidate above 67200
