Since the hype of BlackRock's application for BTC spot trust in mid-June, which caused the BTC price to rise above $30,000, the price of BTC has remained at this stage with slight fluctuations for two weeks, and there has been no obvious breakthrough.
This incident is also the largest trading volume since the Silicon Valley explosion in mid-March and the continuous explosion of technology stocks and regional banks on April 26. Even the largest amount of funds for monthly and quarterly delivery in the past six months on June 30 did not bring more trading volume than these three times. The direct result is that the liquidity of the current currency market is still very low. If we look at the time further, we can see that the average trading volume last week is almost the lowest level since 2021.
This also shows that even if the current funds have not left the currency market, they are still in a wait-and-see state. It can be understood that for more funds, either they have already completed the bottom-fishing at this price, or they think that this price is not the bottom, so the daily trading volume cannot be increased. In particular, the high trading volume components in the past three months have been analyzed above, and it can be found that all of them are driven by events. On the daily line, there is no more trading volume due to the narrative of BTC itself. In other words, when there is a new story, people will buy it. When the story is told one or two days later, the purchase will not continue. However, it can be clearly seen that more major buyers are not mainly short-term speculation, or the main bottom-fishing investors have not yet reached the stage of leaving the market. Therefore, it can be seen that even if there is no new narrative, the price is still stable at around 30,000 US dollars, which means that investors who started bottom-fishing from 25,000 US dollars have not yet left the market. They should be looking forward to the final result given by the SEC, that is, betting on whether BlackRock can obtain the approval of the SEC. If this part of American investors dump the market, the price of BTC will hardly continue to remain above 30,000 US dollars. So now it is almost clear that if there is no new event driving the market or the SEC gives a clear answer, the price is likely to continue to fluctuate. Of course, although the correlation between Nasdaq futures and BTC is only around 35%, it does not mean that macro sentiment will not affect the price trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum. We have said this many times and will not repeat it. The main reason is that the flow of funds in the market will still be affected by macro sentiment, and also from the perspective of trading volume.
Currently, technology stocks still maintain a strong trading trend, which shows that Ai has not reached its end yet and there is still room for speculation. This is both a good thing and a bad thing for the currency market. It is understandable that it is not a good thing. After all, we are still in the stage of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and maintaining high interest rates. The liquidity in the market is limited in itself, and more funds are still absorbed by more promising technology stocks. The advantage is that if technology stocks are in a situation of continuous growth, it is very likely to lead to sector rotation and more overflow funds, and there is also an opportunity to increase liquidity for the currency market. So if we look at the trends in liquidity and trading volume, BTC and ETH have not essentially solved the liquidity problem at present. The shortage of funds and the lack of narrative in the industry itself are still the reasons that affect price increases. This does not mean that the prices of BTC and ETH will not rise, but from the trend point of view, if there is no continued favorable stimulus, the range of price changes is still limited. Before the SEC explicitly rejects or bad information appears, the probability of bargain-hunting funds continuing to hold positions will be higher. July is a standard information month, that is, there will be second quarter financial reports, and it is also a month for betting on whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. If the Fed does not choose to raise interest rates in July, the market will gamble that the Fed will not continue to raise interest rates, and 5.25% will be the final interest rate (there will be no interest rate meeting in August). If the Fed continues to raise interest rates in July, then the market's focus will be on the dot chart in September. In simple terms, from the trend point of view, the biggest difference between the current trend and the support stage of $26,000 is that the market has the possibility of game. Before $26,000, it was the prosecution of SEC and CFTC that caused the price of BTC and ETH to fall from $30,000. At that time, except for the halving cycle, there was almost no positive news worth looking forward to in the currency market. Now more expectations are focused on the applications of several large funds for BTC trusts and spot ETFs.
That is to say, there is hope, so both the holders of losing positions and the holders of profitable positions have the opportunity to gamble, and there is no reason to give up the chips in their hands easily, so the current price is neither going up nor down. It is not going up because there is no continued favorable stimulus for the time being, and most people will not do something to make wedding dresses for others. It is not going down because we are still waiting for the decision of the SEC. After all, BlackRock has been hyped up to be a miracle.