Macroeconomics and news:

Today, the United States released GDP data. GOD is in recession, the job market is performing well, the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, and PCE in the first quarter is seriously overheated. Jokingly speaking, I feel that the United States needs to raise interest rates again. Of course, this is a joke. The possibility of the United States raising interest rates is very small, unless it wants to explode.

However, judging from today's data, it is in line with the most desired result of the Federal Reserve. The economy has landed softly, economic growth has slowed down, employment data has performed well, and inflation is under pressure but is gradually decreasing. These are all signs of a soft landing.

However, the release of the data has basically greatly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts again, because if the economy is moderately declining and inflationary pressure is reduced, it is in line with the expectation of interest rate cuts, but once the economic recession accelerates and inflationary pressure increases, it is not in line with the interest rate cut environment. The release of this data is obviously to maintain the strength of the US dollar and reduce the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.

The opening of the US stock market accelerated its decline, and the financial reports of technology stocks this week were not very optimistic, and did not save the downward trend of the US stock market. According to my expectation, the US stock market will not collapse so easily before the full interest rate cut. However, now it seems that the United States has chosen to protect the exchange rate or the U.S. stock market.

Under the premise of poor performance of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market has fallen again, and the U.S. funds have been in a state of net outflow recently. The U.S. stock market has weakened, the U.S. macroeconomic situation has deteriorated, and the interest rate of U.S. bonds has remained high. All these factors have led to a decline in the willingness of risk market traders to invest in risk.

I hope that the U.S. stock market will rebound tomorrow at the close of this week, so that the risk market sentiment can stabilize.

#大盘走势