April 25 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Yesterday's key reminder of#ETHbulk put option transactions, short-term ETH downside pressure is still large

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I. Core Views

1-Yesterday's special tweet emphasized the purchase of 16,000 ETH put options in the doomsday round, and the short-term downside risk has not been eliminated

2-The doomsday round Short Gamma position is recommended to close the position for profit, don't fight

3-BTC's Dvol data continues to decline, highlighting the attenuation of implied volatility after the end of event-driven

4-The implied volatility of the cottage target option has fallen significantly, and the short volatility strategy of Sol, Doge, Kas and other targets has been pocketed

II. Option Block Trading

BTC has a 3-leg strategy with 800 positions (the overall view is still bullish on spot prices):

buy BTC-28JUN24-110000-C + sell BTC-28JUN24-160000-C + sell BTC-31MAY24-110000-C

ETH has 2 large transactions worth noting (follow up last week's 13,000 buy 3,400 position):

buy ETH-3MAY24-3400-C

sell ETH-26APR24-3000-P + buy ETH-26APR24-3100-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3200-P

Sol's several large transactions shared in the planet

III. Macro market

I have previously reminded Tesla's option strategy twice. Yesterday, the spot price rose by 12% in the after-hours earnings season

The slowdown of the US stock PMI boosted the risk market sentiment, and the service industry PMI also unexpectedly weakened to 50.9, which was lower than expected. 51.7, of which new business and employment (47.3 vs 51.1) fell sharply, the latter falling to the lowest level since the epidemic

My view on the overall US stock market is that the probability of peaking is 80%. If you chase the target, you should also use some option hedging strategies instead of naked long positions.

The relative weakness of H shares last week was due to the external environment and the strong US dollar. The trend of H shares far outperforming the external environment in the past few days reflects more the return of investors' confidence in the market. Because the rhythm of A shares and H shares has been slightly different in the past two weeks, A shares are obviously relatively weak in the past two days, but logically speaking, there should not be a situation where H shares continue to break through and A shares continue to be sluggish. Therefore, we should pay attention to the return of confidence in H shares, and it will inevitably be transmitted if it continues.

Only when the hope of recovery is denied again, we can pay attention to other things.

For detailed volatility analysis of A shares, see the planet