Israel retaliated today and directly attacked Iran's Isfahan region. The main targets were Iran's large air force bases, nuclear facilities and missile production bases.
Yesterday I thought Israel's counterattack would not hit Iran's mainland, but I didn't expect it to be so bold. Moreover, Iran did not make any excessive reactions or behaviors, and claimed that the attack was not successful and the nuclear facilities were safe. And verbally warned Israel again.
Although my expectations of Israel were wrong, based on the current actions of Israel and Iran, one thing I can basically be sure of is what we said yesterday, that there is a tacit understanding between the Middle Eastern countries in addition to the game. The core tacit understanding is to tickle each other, whether for reputation or for regional status, but the red line cannot trigger S3.
So we saw the round-based Middle East battlefield, you come and I have fun. Israel was beaten, and it was said to be a successful interception, and there was not much loss. The same is true for Iran. In name, I fought, but it didn't seem to be so radical. And Iran is not really cowardly, but it may be in the best state at present.
For Israel, the current situation is that it can fight well, but it is also annoying to be surrounded and harassed. Moreover, for the sake of regional status and face, if you hit me, you have to change hands, but you can't cause public anger, because if you directly activate the concentrated firepower in the Middle East, although you may win, it will be a miserable victory, and you may lose your status and significance in the Middle East. Therefore, the current state is the best, because you have face and you have preserved your own strength.
For Iran, it is also a bit helpless to directly confront Israel. Because this is an opportunity to establish Iran's status in the Middle East. The question of who will be the big brother in the Middle East has always been the core of the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Egypt had the best chance before, but it was messed up. This time, with the help of the general trend in the Middle East, it has completely become a big brother. But being a big brother is not really stupid, and you can't lose your life for fame.
If you act too hard, Israel will beat him directly, and Iran's younger brothers will probably not be able to help. Even if he barely survives in the end, he may be a disabled big brother, and he may be killed by his younger brothers or Saudi Arabia.So in this current state, both the face and the inside are good.
As for the pushers behind the scenes, the current chaos has basically helped Russia relieve a lot of battlefield pressure and diverted the world's attention. Russia is a bit overwhelmed at the moment. Once Russia successfully takes down Russia, the situation of the United States against Russia will be broken this time, and the world pattern will slowly change. The position of the United States in the world will also be greatly weakened. Without activating S3, the current state seems to be the best choice to successfully break the situation.
As for geopolitics, I am not a professional, so if there is any deviation in my cognition, please forgive me. The above views only represent my personal views.
