It is now the summer of pendle points. You can get amazing points income by using yt to obtain high leverage points to obtain airdrops. However, you may find that as the expiration time of yt approaches, the leverage multiple obtained becomes larger and larger, but correspondingly, the length of time that points can be obtained before the snapshot becomes shorter. It's like running in the rain without an umbrella. The faster you run in the rain, the more rain you get per second, but you can reach your destination faster. After actual mathematical reasoning, it is easy to know that if the price of yt decreases linearly at a fair speed during the process of returning to zero at expiration (to be precise, the capacity of the liquidity pool needs to be considered), then no matter when you buy yt, the number of points obtained by each eth investment at the end of the pool is the same. However, linear decline may not occur often in the actual market. Take the eigen points of eETH25 Apr 2024 as an example:
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202404/240770c3a61e91cc78392129e1c89a9f.png)
Starting from March 18 (UTC), the YT price (relative to the underlying asset) showed a significant increase for 7 days, which was related to the airdrop of EtherFi in the first quarter. This is an obvious non-linear price change.
In the nonlinear yt price fluctuation, let's see when people who bought it get the most points:
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202404/9fcf8204cd6f83142a07e6c8eb61da75.png)
The red line in the figure represents the points income after buying 1 ETH at the time represented by the horizontal axis and holding it until maturity. The purple line represents the price of yt (relative to the underlying asset). The yellow line is the fair price line of YT (rough estimate). It can be seen from the figure that before the capacity of the pool reaches the upper limit, the decline in the price of yt brings an increase in speculative returns. The best return is 32,570 points for each ETH invested, and the average return is 21,591 points for each ETH.
1During the sideways period, the longer the sideways period, the fewer points you will get from buying YT
It is easy to see that the price of yt remained at a level during the early sideways period, but in fact the value of yt was overestimated, because yt should depreciate every moment. Therefore, during this period, the longer the sideways period, the fewer points will be obtained when buying yt expires.
2. After going sideways, YT starts to decline, and the decline speed is faster than the fair price line. The more points you get by buying YT, the more points you get.
After the sideways movement, the price of yt began to fall. Due to the previous sideways movement, yt fell too quickly. This means that the more yt falls, the more points you get.
Strategy:
There are few opportunities to get a high return on investment in points in the market. Through the Distribution of Hours per Points Interval, it can be seen that if there is no strategy to randomly choose the time to invest in yt, the points earned will most likely be low. If the profit fund capacity is considered more rigorously, using volume weighting, it can be found that if there is no strategy to randomly choose the time to invest in yt, the points earned will be even lower!
Therefore, we need a simple method to determine when to buy YT and pursue higher points income. The simplest and most useful method is to draw an estimated fair price line. The fair price of YT starts from the average of the pool for a period of time, and ends at 0 after the pool expires. You can get a good points return by buying YT only when the purple YT price is lower than the yellow estimated value.