Yesterday (15 APR), US retail data showed strong performance, with a monthly rate of 0.7% month-on-month growth, far exceeding expectations of 0.4%, and the previous value was revised up from 0.6% to 0.9%. The market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut were further postponed, with the probability of no interest rate cuts in June and August being 80% and 54% respectively. The US Treasury yields also gradually rose, with the two-year/ten-year yields at 4.946%/4.655%. US stocks were under downward pressure, with the Dow/S&P/Nasdaq closing down 0.65%/1.2%/1.79% respectively.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
With the further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the repeated postponement of expectations for US interest rate cuts, digital currencies have been fluctuating at low levels in a market filled with risk aversion. After a brief positive rebound brought about by the approval of ETFs in Hong Kong, BTC fell again and fell below the important support level of $62,000 several times.
Source: SignalPlus, BTC has fallen below the $62,000 support level several times
Judging from the data, this round of decline was mainly caused by the liquidation and stop-loss of futures longs. The funding rate has returned to a relatively neutral level (even reaching a negative value). On the bright side, this wave of deleveraging has also brought the overall BTC position (relative to early March) into a relatively healthy state.
Source: Coinglass, Funding rate returns to neutral, leverage market sentiment cools
On the other hand, the halving this week has a greater direct impact on the price of BTC. According to Bitfinex, a large number of BTC holders in centralized exchanges have chosen to leave the market recently, and the number of BTC in inactive addresses for more than one year has also decreased to a new low in the past 18 months. This reveals that long-term holders (LTHs) have been reducing their positions or moving their positions out of exchanges in recent times. At the same time, it is also observed that short-term holders (STHs) are constantly absorbing their sold positions. If the Flow of STHs can continue, the price of the currency may continue to gain upward space.
Source: Deribit (as of 16 APR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
In terms of options, the front-end Vol Skew dropped to the lowest point in the past three months. A considerable number of Long Put positions were established at multiple important strike prices of BTC and ETH in April. At the same time, under such a high and steep IV Surface, the selling pressure of BTC front-end call options remained strong. The only few sell put spreads in bulk were also traded at a relatively far level below 60,000. The market's bullish enthusiasm was completely suppressed by the tense risk aversion sentiment in the past two days.
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew is at an all-time low
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution
Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
