Bitcoin miners could liquidate $5 billion in BTC after the halving, according to calculations by 10x Research head Markus Thielen

"The surplus from this sale could last four to six months, which explains why bitcoin could move sideways over the next few months, as it has done after previous halvings."

Thielen said the same thing could happen again: that crypto markets could potentially face "a major challenge in a six-month 'summer' lull."

Thielen also believes that altcoins, in particular, could bear the brunt of this situation. Many of them have pulled back sharply over the past week and many are still a long way from their 2021 highs.

“Even if there is a correlation between the halving and an altcoin rally, as some predict, historical evidence shows that the rally usually begins almost six months later.”

Thielen posited that Marathon, the world's largest bitcoin miner, has built up inventory "that will likely be sold off gradually after the halving to avoid a revenue cliff."

As Marathon (currently) produces between 28 and 30 BTC per day, this could result in 133 days of additional supply hitting the market plus the BTC it produces, which would be 14-15 BTC per day after the halving, he said.

“Other miners are likely to follow a similar strategy to gradually liquidate some of their inventory.”

The researcher concluded that if all miners have a similar strategy for selling post-halving inventory, "it could result in a maximum of USD 104 million of BTC sales per day, reversing the imbalance between supply and demand that caused the rally." of BTC pre-halving"

Marathon CEO Peter Thiel said the company's breakeven rate would be around $46,000 per BTC to remain profitable after the halving, predicting that significant price movements are unlikely in the six months following the event. .