#jto Although in theory, institutions still have the possibility of dumping the market, because the current long-short ratio is still high and the greed index has not fallen, there are still many "long troops" in the market who may become the target of harvesting. However, why do I think that institutions are unlikely to cut their losses so ruthlessly in the short term? The reason is that if drastic actions are taken again, a large number of users will leave the market. Take yesterday's 412 incident as an example. The incident has caused the loss of half of the new users this year, which is undoubtedly a huge blow to the blockchain ecosystem and centralized exchanges (cex) such as Binance.

The development of the blockchain industry essentially depends on the continuous expansion of the user base. At present, the market value of the entire blockchain market is still at a low level, which means that the industry is still in its early stages and most users are still early adopters. Therefore, there is still huge room for development in the market. Maintaining a high greed index is crucial to the long-term development of institutions, and overly short-sighted behavior will only harm their interests.

Based on the above analysis, I personally predict that the next market adjustment similar to the 412 level may occur as early as May. If a similar incident happens again in April, it may cause market panic, end the bull market prematurely, and prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new high, which will have a great negative impact on the future development of blockchain. Therefore, when institutions act, they must weigh the pros and cons to avoid excessive damage to the market.

Today's order ideas:

JTO is currently on the short side at the 2/4 hour level. Today, pay attention to the two rebound positions near 2.9997/3.1627. As long as the market does not break these two positions in this rebound, the 4-hour level is still on the short side, and the market will continue to go short. The lower target is around 2.4932/2.2483, and short-term watch operations.

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