In the early hours of this morning, Iran launched an airstrike on Israel, causing a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin. In two hours, the price of Bitcoin dropped from $67,077 to $60,500, a drop of 9.8%. War events are often seen as uncertain factors in the market. It is necessary for us to review the impact of the previous Russian-Ukrainian war on Bitcoin. Analyzing the behavior patterns of investors based on on-chain data can provide a clearer understanding of market trends.
In the early morning of February 24, 2022, Putin announced the official launch of a "special operation" to invade Ukraine from the east, south, north, and northeast. BTC fell from $38,710 in the early morning to $34,322 at 1 pm, with a maximum drop of 11.3%;
From the daily chart, the market first plummeted, then recovered its decline, closing with a 2.89% increase, with the maximum daily fluctuation of 14.82%.
Judging from the on-chain data, short-term holders (holding coins for less than 155 days) are the most affected. They sell their BTC or are forced to close their positions, and their losing accounts increase dramatically. Long-term holders have very little fluctuation and are almost unaffected.
By further analyzing the on-chain data indicators, I found that the war has little impact on Bitcoin. It will not change the long-term trend, but may highlight the characteristics of Bitcoin as digital gold.
Gua Ge has posted many articles before, saying that the market is in a stage of competition between traditional institutions and cryptocurrency institutions, and I still hold this view now.
In summary, I believe BTC will soon stop falling and continue to fluctuate sideways.
It's so spectacular. Today is a day worth remembering. Please give a thumbs up to record this historical moment.
