New investors despise old investors, saying that old investors are timid and cowardly and are scared by 312. Now, old investors have their 312, and new investors have their exclusive 412.
Let’s get back to the point. Last night, when Bitcoin fluctuated by less than 10%, many altcoins plummeted by more than 30%. Some altcoins even fell by 40% due to poor liquidity. Some altcoins were almost halved from their record highs.
There are also some altcoins that rose sharply in the early stage, and their prices have fallen by about 70% from their peak, which can be said to be a bloodbath.
What exactly caused the decline?
I summarized a few points for Dajia, which we have actually talked about before.
First, the Bitcoin halving is approaching. Historically, the market conditions before and after the Bitcoin halving have not been ideal.
Second, from a technical point of view, the monthly line has been rising for several consecutive months, more than half a year, and the technical pattern needs to be adjusted.
Third, Binance has a lot of mining projects. Five of them have been launched this month, with an average of one being launched every three days.
It’s only been half a month, and according to a friend from Binance, there are more than 200 projects waiting in line, which is a serious bloodsucking. This is why all the coins have fallen, but bnb stands out.
Fourth, from a metaphysical perspective, judging from historical data, the market conditions in April every year are not very good.
Fifth, when the volatility of Bitcoin is less than 10%, the decline is generally more than 20 points. We can be sure that it is clearing out the leveraged contract plates. I believe you can see this. Basically, as long as you open a contract order, even if it is 2.5 times the contract order, you will be liquidated.
Taking JUP, which I am optimistic about, as an example, we do not need to calculate according to the highest point, but just the central axis position of 1.4. Last night, it fell to a minimum of around 0.8, a drop of 42%. Any contract order higher than 3 times will be liquidated. The dealer reaped a lot of money last night.
This is also why it is not recommended that you touch the contract. You can beat the dealer countless times in the contract, but the dealer only needs to beat you once, and that is the last time.
This is the cryptocurrency world. I once read a passage from Murong Xuecun’s “Ten Years of Love”: If you love someone, ask him to come to the cryptocurrency world, because it is heaven; if you hate someone, ask him to come to the cryptocurrency world, because it is hell.
The current market is no longer the same scale as before. It is completely different now. The factors of human intervention in the market are too strong. A piece of negative news can become the fuse for a margin call. Contract margin calls are mainly for longs. Emotions are cultivated to make you feel that the price should rise near the golden cross, but the volume is weak, and then the margin call is intervened unexpectedly.
BTC hit a low of around 65058 last night and then pulled back to 67000, which is also near the 30-day moving average. Generally speaking, the exchange of chips in the market and the time period are not enough.
The weekly moving average is on the high side, these all need to be repaired. Now it can be seen that the retracement of yesterday's high point of 71,000~65,000 is less than 10%. In the bull market relay, 20% volatility adjustment is often seen. Now the main operation is too obvious, amplifying some negative news to create panic, letting retail investors see losses, or the account has a short-term profit retracement and goes on and off, resulting in fewer and fewer retail investors' chips. When the real big market comes, it has nothing to do with them. When the chips are concentrated in the hands of the main players, the main players have the dominant voice!
Summary: Short-term shock repair is the main trend, and there is no sign of stopping the decline for the time being. Pay attention to stop loss and take profit in the contract. The important support below is around 64000~61000.
This month, Bitcoin has been basically being washed out every day, and the price has been fluctuating between 60,000 and 73,000, with an amplitude of about 20%. This is an obvious feature of each halving month. The decline of small coins is a bit exaggerated, and many have fallen back to the price before the bull market started. Generally, BTC falls by 1%, ETH falls by 2%, and altcoins fall by more than 3%. Therefore, in order to withstand the decline, it is best for coin traders to use half of their positions to hoard Bitcoin, and allocate the rest of their positions to other mainstream coins such as ETH, SOL, and BNB.
Current operational recommendations
After the rebound, reduce 3-5 levels of positions, there will be a second drop, and then wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize before taking it back!
1. Left-side bottom-picking method: set an extremely low price, and bottom-pick every time it drops by 15%, which is similar to price fixed investment!
2. Right-side bottom-picking method: Wait and see for now, and wait for confirmation that the decline has stopped and stabilized before entering the market! It is recommended to use the second bottom-picking method for safety.
Details determine success or failure. Heaven and hell are merely the distance of position management and the difference of concepts.
