Since BTC pulled back to 60,700, it has been hovering between 65,800-73,000. As shown in the figure below, there seems to be a strong trend of new bottoming between 65,800-70,900.

What will happen next?

Can it break through 73,700 in the near future, that is, before the interest rate cut?  I can't say that there is no possibility at all. As long as the ETF is a little bit strong, it is not strong this week, and there is a net outflow. Let's fomo the emotions. Didn't it reach around 72,800 on the 8th? After all, urpd data shows that the resistance level above 70,900 is not large. The key is how high it can go after breaking through?

Can ETF continue to support the rise?

The previous breakthrough of 69,000 new highs, that is, reaching 73,700, triggered a large selling pressure of profit selling, especially GBTC, which went down after less than 5,000u. It is obvious that there is not enough funds and the selling pressure is very large. What if it breaks through 73,700 this time? The overall environment and liquidity have not changed fundamentally, and the interest rate cut is getting closer and closer. So, where does the money to continue to support the big pull come from?

If it breaks through 73,700 and can't go much higher, then the profit selling will increase the selling pressure, and the interest rate cut is getting closer and closer. Where can the correction go?

Here are a few points to note: (Follow me and be your guiding light. I will analyze the market in time every day and arrange the high-quality and potential explosive varieties at any time. If you want to get on the train, click my avatar and look at my homepage profile to find me)

1. Liquidity problem: In 24 hours, only the US time zone, that is, 21:30-6:00 the next day Beijing time, has good liquidity. The liquidity is not good at other times. It is even worse on weekends. Don't forget that the two big market crashes from 73,700 to 60,700 occurred during the daytime Beijing time. So pay special attention

2. Funds in suspected risk markets may withdraw. Why do you say that? You can observe

From mid-to-late March to now. Gold, silver, and commodities are all rising, and gold has reached a new high. 💰quN+V:417072555But S&P, Nvidia, and BTC have been fluctuating since they hit new highs in mid-March.

You can say that the new high of gold is due to geopolitics and war, but it is also possible that it is due to the expected interest rate cut. Of course, it is unlikely to cut interest rates in May now, and the probability of June is getting lower, that is, July. It is only April now, so it is still early. But this behavior may be suspected of capital withdrawal.Maybe Q3 is risky. Of course, some friends also said, you see, gold rose last night, US stocks fell, and BTC rose. This is BTC following gold. I can't help but ask, gold is a global consensus safe-haven asset, how many people think BTC is a safe-haven asset? How many

3. Continue to pay attention to the inflow and outflow of ETFs, especially GBTC, as well as the inflow and outflow of stablecoins. In fact, there are more stablecoins. The overall ETF data in the past half month is not optimistic. Either net outflow or barely net increase, there is no significant net increase

4. In fact, whether the interest rate cut is expected or the first confirmed interest rate cut, it is not very terrible. What is terrible is recession, that is, the bad external environment plus BTC self-narrative appears FUD, etc., triggering black swan events, which is the most likely to panic. The consequences are self-evident. This requires attention from many aspects, and black swans cannot be predicted

To be honest, a callback is possible. I can't predict how much it may be. I can only judge it based on the mood and the background of funds. I will continue to post reminders later. What I want to say is that now BTC has returned to 71,000, has the altcoin returned to the same period? No! This is the most bizarre point. If BTC breaks through 6 or even lower due to poor liquidity, interest rate cuts, or other fuds, what will happen to the altcoin? Can it hold up? This is what I said about the possible callback opportunity#Meme #WIF #SHIB #大盘走势 #比特币减半