BTC market trend analysis: continued volatility, quietly reaching new highs

1. BTC continued yesterday's volatility expectations. Affected by the news, Bitcoin fell rapidly at the opening of the US market yesterday, and it seemed that the landslide and water would flow backwards. But the market only took three four-hour K-lines to recover the lost ground. It is completely within our forecast range: 68,000-71,500 volatility.

2. The total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was US$123 million. The largest daily net inflow yesterday was Fidelity, with a daily net inflow of approximately US$76.31 million.

The US March CPI and core CPI exceeded expectations again. After the data was released, the market's expectations for the Fed's June rate cut fell to 16%, and the Fed's first rate cut was expected to be postponed from June to September. The expected rate cut for the whole year also dropped sharply from 66bp the day before to 41bp, that is, less than two rate cuts.

3. In fact, for now, whether#BTCis 60,000 or 70,000, it is a transition process. The door of 58,000 has been welded shut. The impact of the halving cycle, the US election, and the interest rate cut has not yet appeared. As shown in the last data, long-term holders are still increasing, and the stock of exchanges is getting smaller and smaller. Various signs still indicate that the bull market has not yet ended.

4. Is everyone confused again with the rise and fall? The view remains unchanged: the BTC market fluctuates in the range of 68,000 to 71,500. It is acceptable to insert down to 66,000, but the daily line needs to be closed, and time is exchanged for space to finally achieve a new round of rise. It is still seen around 100,000, not necessarily breaking 100,000, but it must be around. May and June are highly likely, and April is just playing routines. Be prepared for the official new market in May.

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*The following data is collected at the time of writing, and there may be deviations due to time changes.

1. Market dynamics and capital changes:

The current total market value is about 2.71 trillion US dollars, with no significant change compared to yesterday;

The market value of Bitcoin is about 1.36 trillion US dollars, with no significant change compared to yesterday;

The market value of Ethereum is about 421.824 billion US dollars, with no significant change compared to yesterday;

The market value of altcoins (including Ethereum) is about 1.37 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 0.02 trillion US dollars compared to yesterday, an increase of 1.48%;

The total BTC inventory of all exchanges is still at the lowest level in the past six years. Currently, there are only 174 exchanges in the entire network.410,000 BTC, an increase of 1,800 BTC compared with yesterday. There was no significant change in yesterday's market value compared with yesterday;

2. Trading volume:

Total trading volume is about 104.6 billion US dollars, an increase of about -3.802 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -3.51%;

Bitcoin trading volume is about 32.703 billion US dollars, an increase of about 5.977 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 22.36%;

Ethereum trading volume is about 17.1 billion US dollars, an increase of about -346 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -1.98%;

Altcoin (including Ethereum) trading volume is about 70.671 billion US dollars, an increase of about -8.456 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -10.69%;

Total trading volume compared with yesterday There has been a decrease, but the Bitcoin transaction volume has increased significantly compared with yesterday, and the current price of Bitcoin is also in a state of rising prices and increasing volumes;

3. Funding:

The total funds on the market are about 155.375 billion US dollars, an increase of about 175 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 0.11%;

USDT: market value is about 107.166 billion US dollars, an increase of about 41 million US dollars yesterday, an increase of about 0.04%; trading volume is about 55.382 billion US dollars, an increase of about -475 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -0.85%;

USDC: market value is about 32.182 billion US dollars, an increase of about -142 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about - 0.44%; the trading volume is about 6.261 billion US dollars, an increase of about -1.362 billion US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of -17.87%;

The trading volume of funds on the market has also decreased compared with yesterday;

4. Contract data

The total contract position of the entire network is about 76.46 billion US dollars, an increase of about 2.69% compared with yesterday;

The 24-hour contract trading volume of the entire network is about 182.09 billion US dollars, an increase of about 5.26% compared with yesterday;

The total 24-hour liquidation volume of the entire network is about 210 million US dollars, an increase of about -12.50% compared with yesterday;

Among them, the Bitcoin contract position is about 37.256 billion US dollars, an increase of about 2.37% compared with yesterday;

Bitcoin contract The trading volume is about 86.217 billion US dollars, which is about 12.84% less than yesterday;

The 24-hour liquidation volume of Bitcoin is about 70.5399 million US dollars, which is about 24.94% more than yesterday;

Among them, the long position liquidation is about 25.2922 million US dollars, which is about -23.65% more than yesterday;

The short position liquidation is about 45.2477 million US dollars, which is about 93.93% more than yesterday;

From the contract data, the position and trading volume have increased, and the liquidation volume has decreased compared with yesterday. Among them, the long position liquidation volume has decreased compared with yesterday, but the short position liquidation volume has increased compared with yesterday. Before the price is clear, it is not recommended to carry out short-term contract operations.

5. ETF data

The total transaction volume of Bitcoin ETF is about 3.532 billion US dollars, an increase of about 282 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about 8.68%;

The total market value of Bitcoin ETF is about 61.793 billion US dollars, an increase of about 924 million US dollars compared with yesterday, an increase of about -1.52%;

The total asset management scale of Bitcoin ETF is about 56.734 billion US dollars, an increase of about 169 million US dollars compared with yesterday, a decrease of about 0.30%.