Bull market escape signal indicator list (simplified version) 1-05

Indicators are normal, reject noise and wait patiently. When more than half of the recorded indicators hit the threshold, start the current bull market fixed selling.

Next week's macro outlook: On January 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December 2024 monetary policy meeting. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March 2025 is 49.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 45.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 4.9%.

At 22:30 on Monday, Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook will deliver a speech;

At 23:00 on Tuesday, the US December ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the US November JOLTs job vacancies;

At 21:15 on Wednesday, the US December ADP employment;

At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs of challenger companies in the United States in December;

At 21:30 on Friday, the US December unemployment rate, the US December seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population, and the US December average hourly wage annual/monthly rate;

At 23:00 on Friday, the initial value of the US January one-year inflation rate expectations and the initial value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January.