#大盘走势 , this is my analysis of the market changes and the impact of major events in the next few months!
1. Expected effects of interest rate adjustments
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, driven by the overall economic cycle. The high interest rate environment will not last long, and once interest rate cuts begin, they may last for 2-3 years. Interest rate cuts will bring about a drop in capital costs, thereby promoting market liquidity.
The most likely time for a rate cut is June, and it may be implemented in September at the latest. There is usually a delay in the market's reaction to news of interest rate cuts. The market may have a brief adverse reaction after the initial news is announced, but then the trend will change substantially. If interest rates are cut in September, the market may experience an upward trend before then, which is expected to begin in July. In the same way, if interest rates are cut in June, the market may start as early as May.
2. Market fluctuations caused by reduced production
According to historical data analysis, the market often performs poorly in production reduction months, but there are usually significant market fluctuations before and after production reduction events. If the market performance before the production cut was sluggish, then the production cut may be an ideal entry point.
On the contrary, if the market rebounds significantly before production cuts, short-term investors may consider temporarily leaving the market and waiting for better investment opportunities. Within one to two months after the production cut, the market is expected to gradually recover and then enter a better market stage.
3. Investment strategies of large financial institutions
Although Grayscale has reduced its holdings of some cryptocurrencies, other large new capitals such as BlackRock and Fidelity have not yet shown obvious trading trends. If these institutions want to sell cryptocurrencies on a large scale, the market price may need to double and remain stable for a period of time, which is affected by the overall market capacity and trading activity.
The past is the past, the key is to seize the opportunities of the future. From a medium-term perspective, the market's expectations for the future remain positive and the bull market trend has not yet ended. We need to learn to buy decisively when the market falls sharply and consider selling appropriately when the market rises sharply. When facing various market news and fluctuations, you should think from the perspective of institutional investors to avoid being trapped by the market.
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