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As of June 21, the U.S. BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $6.35 billion over the past 30 days, setting a record since its launch in January 2024, ranking first among all 582 30-day windows.

The ETF has experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with total net inflows dropping to around $53.4 billion. This week alone, the net outflow was approximately $227 million, accounting for 96% of the total outflows from crypto ETFs, with funds predominantly leaving the BTC side.

MSBT currently holds about 4,345 coins, valued at approximately $271 million, with recent purchases consistently flowing in through Coinbase Prime.

The core driver behind this record outflow is the Fed's unexpected hawkish shift during the June FOMC meeting. The dot plot indicates that the median interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 was significantly raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, effectively putting an end to the rate cut narrative.

The current uncertainty revolves around the U.S.-Iran technical-level negotiations that took place on June 21 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. If a breakthrough occurs, geopolitical risks may ease, potentially alleviating some outflow pressure. However, the structural pressure created by the upward revision of interest rate expectations is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

The $60,400-$62,000 support zone is the battleground for bulls and bears, while the resistance at $64,000-$65,000 remains unbroken with low volume, keeping a bearish watch for now. $BTC

The talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland remain at a standstill. US envoy Wittekopf is on his way to Switzerland, while Trump’s son-in-law Kushner has already arrived and is on standby. Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif plans to head to Switzerland before June 20, but his schedule is still subject to change. The meeting that was originally set for June 19 in the Swiss region of Birg has been canceled.

The core sticking point in the negotiations is the ceasefire in Lebanon. Zarif has made it clear that the ceasefire in Lebanon is crucial for Iran and a decisive factor in the talks. Although Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire at 4 PM on June 19, the IDF retains the clause of 'retaliate if attacked.' More importantly, even after the ceasefire, the IDF has launched airstrikes in multiple locations in Lebanon, resulting in at least 47 deaths and 97 injuries on that day. The enforcement of the ceasefire agreement is in question.

Meanwhile, the mediators will hold a meeting in Egypt on June 21. Overall, the negotiations have shifted from 'postponed' to 'people in place, conditions being negotiated,' with June 23 being a key observation window.

Relevant data shows that if BTC drops below $60,400, the cumulative long liquidation intensity will reach $1.13 billion. Conversely, if it breaks above $66,000, the short liquidation intensity will hit $765 million.

A smooth start to the negotiations would be favorable for price recovery.

If the ceasefire breaks down again and the talks are stalled, market uncertainty will rise once more.

Keep a close eye on whether Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif departs as scheduled and if the negotiations can kick off around June 23. $BTC

On-chain data shows that Morgan Stanley increased its holdings by 266.56 BTC last week through its spot ETF product MSBT, bringing its total holdings to 4,348 BTC, which is approximately $274 million at current market prices. The institution has been buying against the trend as the price retraced from above $67,000 to around $63,000.

This move sharply contrasts with the overall weak performance of the ETF market.

This week, the spot ETFs experienced a cumulative net outflow of $227.5 million, with Grayscale's GBTC seeing a single-week outflow of $156.3 million and BlackRock's IBIT losing $44.7 million. Since June, the cumulative net outflow for ETFs has reached $2.26 billion.

However, it's worth noting that Morgan Stanley's MSBT saw a contrary net inflow of $25.8 million during the same period, indicating a clear divergence in institutional capital flow.

Currently, the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 14 yesterday to 23 but remains in the 'extreme fear' zone.

Morgan Stanley's purchase of 266 BTC represents a very small percentage of the daily trading volume, implying limited short-term supply-demand impact.

Nonetheless, the signals from leading Wall Street institutions continuing to enter the market during this extreme fear zone are crucial, providing marginal institutional buying support for the $60,000-$62,000 support area.

Lastly, as long as the short-term resistance at $64,000-$65,000 remains unbroken, we should maintain a bearish watch in this range.

Only if the trend of accumulation by top institutions is confirmed can we consider medium to long-term opportunities in the $60,000-$62,000 range. Of course, this is assuming we don't drop below it, haha. $BTC

The USD Index broke through the 101 level today, hitting a new high not seen since May 2025, marking three consecutive days of gains. The core drivers behind this surge are twofold: Kashkari's first FOMC appearance sent out hawkish signals that exceeded expectations, coupled with safe-haven buying due to the cancellation of US-Iran talks, which together boosted the dollar.

Goldman Sachs' Vice Chairman Kaplan indicated that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed could hike rates as early as September, and rate increases typically come in a series.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a December rate hike has skyrocketed from 61% before the meeting to 87% now.

A stronger dollar is putting pressure on BTC prices through two channels. First, the tightening global dollar financing environment is bearish for all dollar-denominated risk assets. Second, BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq remains above 0.6, and the dollar's strength is eroding multinational corporations' overseas revenue expectations, putting pressure on tech stocks and dragging BTC down.

If the expectations for a September rate hike continue to strengthen, it could be game over.

The $64000-$65000 range is the resistance zone; reclaiming and gaining volume there would be a signal of stabilization. Currently, both macro and geopolitical pressures are weighing heavily, so let's be patient and wait for clearer signs of stabilization before making any moves. $BTC

Latest news, Iran has officially suspended all 60-day negotiation processes, citing Israel's attacks on southern Lebanon and the U.S. violating the first clause of the memorandum.

Previously, Iran only postponed its trip to sign in Switzerland, but now the entire negotiation window is on hold, marking a significant escalation in the execution of the agreement.

The signing ceremony in Switzerland originally scheduled for June 19 has been officially canceled, and Vice President Vance has canceled his trip to Switzerland, confirmed by the Swiss Foreign Ministry. This means that the U.S.-Iran peace agreement has shifted from 'execution in doubt' to 'execution suspended', reversing the geopolitical risk discount logic that previously propelled BTC's rebound.

BTC has dropped below the critical support at $63,000, currently trading weakly in the $62,000-$63,000 range. However, the buying pressure is extremely weak with selling pressure dominating.

Market maker Wintermute has warned that BTC could potentially drop to $50,000. While this is an extreme scenario proposed by the market maker, it reflects institutional caution about deteriorating market sentiment.

There are two key points to watch moving forward:
1. Will Iran officially announce its withdrawal from the memorandum? If so, geopolitical risks will fully return.
2. Will Israel undertake a larger military action in Lebanon? If this escalates, BTC will directly test the previous lows. Additionally, if $60,000 is lost, it will open up downward space to $58,000 or even $55,000.

Currently, the $60,000-$62,000 range is densely packed with chips, serving as the last defense line for the bulls. In the short term, it is not advisable to catch falling knives on the left side; it might be better to wait for a substantial easing signal in the geopolitical situation, such as the U.S. applying effective pressure on Israel or Iran returning to the negotiation table, before considering entry. $BTC

Let's get an update.

The offline signing ceremony for the US-Iran memorandum of understanding scheduled for today in Switzerland has been canceled. Vice President Vance has scrapped his trip to Switzerland, and Iran has also announced a delay in negotiations. The direct cause is Israel's ongoing military operations, extending 10 kilometers deep into Lebanon.

Iran has warned that as long as Israel continues to strike Hezbollah, the memorandum will be considered null and void. While the 60-day negotiation window opened on June 18, the execution of the agreement is starting to wobble, with the previously anticipated biggest variable now coming to fruition.

At the same time, the divergence in US-Israel policies in the Middle East has become public. Vice President Vance harshly criticized Israel at a White House press conference yesterday, claiming that their response to the US-Iran agreement demonstrates "bizarre panic" and "hysteria," warning far-right officials of their "severe lack of trust in the US."

Vance noted that the US provides Israel with $4 billion in military aid each year, with two-thirds of its defense weapons being US-made. Israel cannot rely solely on violence to solve every national security issue.

Pressure from the US on Israel is ramping up.

If Israel curtails its military actions under US pressure, the execution of the US-Iran agreement may get back on track, and BTC could gradually recover.

However, if Israel ignores warnings and escalates, even launching airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the rift in US-Israel relations will deepen, increasing uncertainty in the Middle East, and the 60-day window might collapse prematurely.

The previous rebound logic for BTC, which was embedded with peace expectations, is being weakened. The short-term direction completely hinges on Israel's next move.

If hostilities ease, we could see a stabilization and a rebound; if they escalate, we might test support levels and look down towards $60000. $BTC

Netanyahu openly declared that the US-Iran memorandum is a "complete disaster," emphasizing that as long as the Iranian nuclear and missile issues remain unresolved, the threat persists. Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir stated that the agreement is "non-binding" for Israel, and they will not adjust any military deployments.

Trump subsequently responded in an interview that if Iran misbehaves, bombs will be dropped again. This statement serves as both a deterrent to Iran and a reassurance to Israel. The US still has military options on the table.

Israel currently stands as the biggest uncertainty in the execution of the agreement. They refuse to accept the terms and continue military operations in southern Lebanon. If Israel undertakes larger unilateral actions, such as airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the 60-day negotiation window may collapse early.

The current BTC rebound logic incorporates expectations of peace between the US and Iran; if this premise is shaken, the $62000 support will be directly tested.

In the short term, it’s not advisable to accumulate long positions just because a peace agreement is in place; it's wiser to wait for clearer reactions from Israel before making moves. $BTC

On June 17th, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed ahead of schedule and took effect immediately. Trump signed the document during a dinner with Macron at the Palace of Versailles during the G7 summit in France, and Iranian President Raisi completed the electronic signature in Tehran in the early hours of the 18th. Macron released a video stating that the agreement "paves the way for lasting peace."

The memorandum includes 14 core terms, with both parties immediately and permanently halting all military operations across the board. The US will lift the maritime blockade immediately and fully end it within 30 days. Iran commits to not acquiring or developing nuclear weapons. The US promises to establish a reconstruction fund for Iran of at least $300 billion with regional partners. Both sides will negotiate to reach a final agreement within 60 days.

However, the troublemaker Israel has expressed strong concerns about the memorandum, stating it won't withdraw troops from Lebanon. On the Iranian side, although the Supreme Leader has differing opinions in principle, he ultimately approved it. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council declared it will closely monitor the execution, stating that if the US violates it, they will respond decisively.

BTC has partially priced in this news in the $63,000 to $66,000 range in the short term, with the focus shifting from "Can the agreement be signed?" to "Can the agreement be executed?"

If Israel remains inactive, BTC has a chance. If execution hits snags, then it’s game over. $BTC

On June 14, 2026, the $BTC network executed a historic difficulty adjustment at block height 953568. Mining difficulty was slashed by 10.09%, dropping from 1.389 trillion to 1.2493 trillion. This marks the 11th largest downward adjustment since its inception and the second largest drop in 2026, following the 11.16% decrease on February 11.

Miners are bleeding out.

The direct trigger for this adjustment was a price drop of about 15% in June. The total network hash rate has fallen 23% from last October's peak to 886 EH/s.

Miners' hash rate has decreased by approximately 28% since late October last year, with current production costs around $76,000, while the trading price stands at only $64,000. Most miners are operating at a loss, forced to sell off their assets just to survive.

Miners face a short-term funding gap of about $50 billion, with pressure comparable to the bear market of 2022.

Another glaring signal.

On-chain data shows that the percentage of profitable BTC supply is nearing the 45% threshold. The volume of supply at a loss has exceeded that of profitable supply, indicating significant pressure on holders. We've discussed this before.

Historically, such a massive difficulty reduction often occurs at the bottom of a cycle. After moments like September 2023 and August 2024, prices usually see considerable gains. But a bottom does not equate to an immediate rebound.

Miner capitulation is a bloody process.

A well-known analyst pointed out that the structural bottom of this cycle might be around $48,000.

The difficulty adjustment increases earnings per machine for the remaining miners by about 9%. However, this feels more like a breather for survivors rather than a signal for industry reversal.

In the context of a hawkish stance from the Fed and ongoing tightening of liquidity, miners' struggles are far from over, and the bottom will require time to confirm.

On June 18th at midnight Beijing time, the inaugural FOMC meeting chaired by the new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh wrapped up. The FOMC unanimously decided with a 12-0 vote to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the fourth consecutive time that the Fed has held steady.

Rates are unchanged, but everything else has shifted.

The real impact comes from three fronts.

First, the dot plot has turned from dovish to hawkish. Back in March, not a single official supported a rate hike, but this time, out of the 18 officials submitting forecasts, 9 expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6 predicting at least two hikes. The median rate forecast for the end of 2026 has been significantly raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8% now.

Second, inflation forecasts have been markedly revised upwards. The 2026 PCE inflation expectation soared from 2.7% to 3.6%, while core PCE rose from 2.7% to 3.3%.

Third, all dovish language has been removed. The policy statement was cut down from over 300 words to about 130 words, eliminating any forward guidance regarding potential rate cuts. Walsh stated that such forward guidance is not suitable for the current policy environment.

This is the signal of a hawkish shift.

After the announcement, $BTC reacted sharply, dropping more than 1% in a short time, hitting a low of $64,600, and continued to decline, with over $430 million in liquidations across the board in the past 24 hours, affecting over 100,000 traders. The slight rebound from the previous three days has been completely wiped out.

Expectations for tighter liquidity have further strengthened. CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 78%. The prolonged 'easy money' era is coming to an end. The market is entering a new cycle dominated by 'higher for longer' rates. The 'bullish' logic that supported the bull run over the past two years is retreating.

First, take a look at the $BTC whale address section in the chart; yesterday it saw a net outflow of 1202 coins. At the same time, the spot ETF data also showed a net outflow of 1252 coins. Although the day before, both metrics were showing net inflows, clearly their impact isn’t as significant as the outflows, which is glaring.

So does this mean we’ve completed our rebound? It’s possible. The price is currently on a correction path, but whether this is just a correction or a reversal into a downtrend will require a few more days of price action. If in the coming days the gains don’t exceed the losses and we break below the key support level of 62000, then the likelihood of this market making new lows is quite high.

Lastly, we have the hawkish debut from the FOMC. They maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot of the nine members indicates rate hikes expected in 2026, removing any dovish leanings, with inflation forecasts significantly raised, pushing the median rate to 3.8% by the end of 2026. This isn’t a pause; it’s a signal of a hawkish shift. The tightening of liquidity expectations is further reinforced.

Back to the market, based on current trends, here are my thoughts:

1. We’ll see a rebound in the next couple of days, but if this rebound fails to push the price above the 65500 level, then we’ll probably see a downturn. In short, I believe the 65500 level is a pivotal battleground between bulls and bears. If we break above, it proves the bulls can still fight. If we stall, then we’ll be waiting for the bears to continue their assault.

2. If the price still can’t manage to rebound today, and instead dips into the support range [62900-63300], coupled with poor on-chain data, then this market might be about half dead. We can’t be sure that the lower range [59000-60000] is definitely a bottom. This could be the last line of defense for the bulls.

3. Historically, whenever the Fed releases strong hawkish signals, prices tend to drop for several days, making it difficult for the market to regain footing in the short term. Right now, I advocate for shorting on the highs unless the price breaks and holds above 65500.

In summary, this is for reference only.

What really determines the long-term price trend of $BTC is the global M2, which is a hard number that won’t change just because of some news.

Lyn Alden's research from 2013 to 2024 shows that BTC has a correlation of 0.94 with global M2, way above gold's 0.83 and the US stock index's 0.60-0.75. The M2 turning point leads BTC prices by 70-90 days. As of June 2026, the total M2 from the world's four major central banks has surpassed $101.8 trillion, setting a new historical high. China's M2 balance is at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, while the US M2 is up 4.3% year-on-year, indicating that global liquidity is still in an expansion phase.

During BTC's pullback of 52% from its $126,198 peak, M2 didn’t contract; it was merely a short-term decoupling caused by the Iran war and leverage unwinding. The lagging effect of M2 is still on its way. Whether BTC has an ETF or not, it will ride the wave of M2 up to over $120,000—an ETF is just an accelerator, not the engine.

The industry needs to rise; M2 liquidity injection is a hard fact, and the halving supply reduction is a hard mechanism. The BTC bull-bear cycle needs to rise to complete the ecological loop. After five years of decline, from a cyclical perspective, there’s no room left to drop.

M2 is still expanding, and the lagging effect has yet to materialize. On-chain valuation is in the bottom zone, with the halving cycle pointing towards a turning point in Q4. $60,000 is the critical bottom line for BTC; holding it confirms the cyclical bottom. The $70,000-$75,000 range above is the watershed for reclaiming the 200-day moving average and reopening upward space. Now is not the time to panic; it’s time to position according to the cyclical rhythm.

This global M2 represents the total of the broad money supply from countries worldwide, derived from data released by various central banks, reflecting the total liquidity level in the global economy and measuring global liquidity.

First, let’s check the whale addresses on the candlestick; yesterday saw a net inflow of only 811 coins. Additionally, the spot ETF data showed a net outflow of 986 coins yesterday. This means that the recent price surge, triggered by the positive news from the US-Iran agreement memo, hasn’t really attracted much interest from high-net-worth individuals. Or, it could mean that when the price hit the 67000 line, there was a significant split in sentiment between bulls and bears.

Although not many are optimistic, the good news is that this wave of price increase hasn’t led to serious selling pressure. Therefore, after an effective correction, there’s still a chance to push for higher levels. I think this might happen in the next couple of days, especially with the US and Iran planning to officially sign a "ceasefire memorandum" in Geneva on June 19. But whether it will be successfully signed is a big question mark. Some terms in the memorandum, as analyzed yesterday, suggest that if the US agrees, it wouldn’t be much different from unconditional surrender. Is this something Trump could manage?

So right now, the market feels a bit jittery; any slight movement could lead to price suppression. Why suppression and not good news? Because the biggest positive has already been set in motion. The chances of a successful signing on June 19 are quite slim.

Back to the charts, based on the current trends, here are my views:

1. This major rebound, while not looking too strong, has a bit of an “ant climbing a tree” vibe, indicating a build-up before a breakout. There seems to be some upward space. I believe the biggest resistance should come from the 69000 line. As long as the price breaks and holds above the 67000 line, the next step would be to challenge the 69000 line, but I think it will probably face short sellers' sniping here.

2. However, if we are currently in a corrective phase and today’s upward attempt fails, if the price breaks below the 65800 line, we should look at the support range below 【64800-65100】. This could be a good spot to consider going long.

3. The recent pressure zone to watch is 【66800-67000】. Will it continue to rise today? That depends on how the price performs within this pressure zone. If it’s strong, there’s potential for continued upward movement, but we still need to be wary of a bull trap. If it’s weak, it might hit resistance and pull back, necessitating a washout and consolidation before proceeding.

4. It's important to note that the 67000 line is prone to creating bull traps.

In summary, this is just for reference.