Will there be a black swan before and after the Bitcoin halving?

Just as BTC (Bitcoin) was about to rise, breaking through the resistance line of the upper edge of the wedge (about $70,000) and occupying the position above $72k, the bears suddenly made a comeback and beat the bulls back into the wedge below $70,000. The bulls' breakout failed this time. The bears' confidence is roughly the following points: one is that the US tax season is approaching; the second is the Fed's tightening policy; the third is the sluggish inflow of ETFs and the expansion of outflows.

In the last halving cycle, we actually experienced two black swan "plunge" shocks, one was "312" in 2020 (with a retracement of more than 60%), and the other was "519" in 2021 (with a retracement of more than 50%)! How "lucky"!

Retracement is an expression of leverage vulnerability. When selling causes prices to fall. Price drops cause leverage to be forced to close positions. Leverage forced to close positions causes more selling. More selling causes price collapse. Such a feedback loop, chain reaction, causes price avalanche.

This round of halving cycle has been gentle so far. The maximum retracement is no more than 25%.

The common leverage ratios in the market are about 2x, 3x, 5x, and 10x. To blow them up, you need to retrace more than 50%, 33%, 20%, and 10% respectively. A 10% retracement and a 10x leverage explosion should be commonplace. A 20% retracement and a 5x leverage explosion should come from time to time to lighten the burden. A 33% retracement and a 3x leverage explosion should be seen occasionally, like the sword of Damocles hanging high. A 50% retracement and a 2x leverage explosion are rare, and it has been encountered twice in a halving cycle in 2020, which can be regarded as "historical".