Billionaire investor Arthur Hayes takes a cautious approach regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving and its possible effects on the Bitcoin price.
Unlike many analysts who are expecting a huge price increase following the Bitcoin halving, Hayes' perspective is more cautious. Hayes thinks that price dynamics may develop in a negative direction before and after the halving.
In a blog post shared on April 8, Hayes stated that there is generally a widespread belief that the Bitcoin halving will have a positive impact on cryptocurrency prices. However, he emphasized that when the general market opinion leans towards one outcome, an opposite outcome is often encountered.
Based on these observations, Hayes shared his opinion that Bitcoin and general cryptocurrency prices could fall during the halving.
How the Increase in Liquidity in the US Dollar Will Affect the Crypto Market
Arthur Hayes expressed concerns about tight liquidity in the US dollar around the expected Bitcoin halving date. Hayes believes this trapped liquidity could encourage the selling of crypto assets.
In line with these concerns, Hayes drew attention to the period between April 15 and May 1, when the Federal Reserve expects a possible change in its Monetary Tightening policy and the tax payment deadline. He decided not to take any action until May.
Hayes stated that the slowdown in the decline in the Fed's balance sheet and the expected decrease in the rate of Monetary Tightening (QT) will make a positive contribution to dollar liquidity.
Seeing May 1 as the end of a volatile period for risky assets, Hayes sees it as a turning point where US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Fed will revitalize the liquidity flow by taking measures to increase asset prices.
Hayes does not intend to open a direct short position in the market, but has closed profitable positions in some cryptocurrencies and plans to refrain from trading until May 1.
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