After the big cake pulled back to 72800 points, it began to turn downward during the day, and slightly fell below 70000 points in the evening. The overall trend of the market is basically in line with the expectations in the previous article. That is, it is just a rebound in the short term, and there will inevitably be a round of downward retracement to confirm the bottom before the new high. It is expected that the range cycle adjustment will last at least one week.

In terms of operation, members were prompted to reduce their positions in Bitcoin by 10% at yesterday's high point, and there was no intention to move the rest of the coins. The logic is actually quite simple. No matter what form of callback or bottom confirmation, the market will not reach a new low in the short term. The short-term general decline driven by Bitcoin will eventually make the market reach a new high after the adjustment. If we can withstand the last round of callbacks, we will win.

On the first working day of this week, ETFs had a net outflow of 3,112 coins. Grayscale's total shipments have exceeded 300,000 coins, approaching 50% of the volume. This indicator briefly reflects that it is difficult for Bitcoin to continue to pull up this week. At the same time, the recent HK Carnival Conference has brought various heats while also replicating the trend of previous summits that must fall. History can be used as a reference.

Of course, this HK Carnival also has some corresponding long-term market benefits. For example, Vitalik's speech made a very appropriate assumption about Ethereum's own application, which gave us a better expectation for its future development and market trend. For example, it was confirmed that many institutions such as Harvest Fund and Southern Fund's subsidiary have applied for the layout of Bitcoin spot ETF. The current known news is that some ETF products can be approved as early as the second quarter of this year, which will have great expectations for the long bull market in the second half of the year.

The US CPI data for March will be released at 8:30 tomorrow night. The general market sentiment is that the data may not be ideal, which will trigger a further correction in the short term. Of course, we don’t need to guess the basic situation of the data at the current price. Sanshu believes that the interest rate cut within the year is an established fact. The later the time is, the clearer the specific time point will be, and the clearer the market trend will be.

The short-term pain and each round of deep washout are all to avoid too much obstacles when the new high is reached in the future. It is obvious that after several rounds of washouts and shocks, the volume of long leverage is getting smaller and smaller. After the contract position experienced the last round of historical high plunge, the bulls have lost their arrogance.

Uncle San has always said that in a bull market cycle, the decline is uncertain, but the rise is certain. The big cycle of the bull market is a process of continuous bullishness. When the peak signal appears, it is time to sell in batches and run away. If it is a downward cycle, we can be bearish in stages, but Uncle San is determined not to go short.

The market will not move in the direction we imagine, and there are endless scams and fake falls. When the market is not good, we should stay away from it and return to our lives, and take a look at the outside world. After a short adjustment, when we return our eyes to the market, we will find that the market is waving to us at a new high point.

Regarding the outlook after the decline, it is expected that the bottom will fall below 66,000 points, and then with the arrival of the Bitcoin halving, the market will collectively break through the existing high. Regarding bottom fishing, this round is over, don't hesitate.

BTC: Bitcoin's trend today is already within expectations. The next scenario is to accelerate after it comes down, at least break 66,000 points. After the second bottom confirmation, the market will reverse, and the next round of rebound will directly reverse to a new high. The short-term bottom adjustment cycle is expected to be about a week. The market will stabilize by mid-month, and Bitcoin will start to rise. Be patient. Those who have reduced their positions as mentioned above can make up for it themselves. Those who have not reduced their positions can just stay away from the market for a short time. There is no shortage of opportunities in the bull market, only the principal. If you don't know how to operate, don't get on and off frequently. Set a goal, and this bull market will definitely be in place. The market will still be very uncomfortable in the next few days, and it will pass after you endure it.

ETH: The Ether position has always been relatively moderate, and there is really nothing to say. The weakness is linked to Bitcoin. The judgment of breaking the historical high before the end of May remains unchanged, so I will leave it here.

TNSR: A large number of first-tier platforms were launched today. The current price is around 1.89 points, and the total amount of 1 billion is temporarily in circulation with 125 million. I think the conservative participation point is below 1.6 points, and we will see if there will be a decline in the near future to give us an opportunity to enter the market.

SAGA: It is also a new project launched today. The fundamentals are quite luxurious. The project covers concepts such as modules, re-staking and games. However, the price of the currency has risen too much during the day, and the market value ratio is seriously overestimated. After selling the profit-taking, let's see if there is an opportunity around 3.5 points or below, otherwise I will not participate.

Others: For the target of replenishment, continue to pay attention to the fan series on dips during the week, and it is expected that it will be hyped up after mid-April. In addition, pay attention to the AI ​​sector, which has a severe correction. I personally expect that after this round of wash-out, the AI ​​concept series will lead the rise of the cottage industry again.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! ​​​#大盘走势 #非农数据 #SHIB #新币挖矿 $BTC