The traditional market was relatively calm yesterday, with all three major U.S. stock indexes closing flat. However, a large number of important macro data will be released in the next week. For traders who focus on U.S. bonds, Wednesday’s CPI will be the focus. In the past few days, bond market yields have risen amid unexpected inflation data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials. Market expectations for future interest rate policies have gradually shifted from optimistic rate cuts of “three rate cuts” and “50 basis point rate cuts” to a relatively cautious wait-and-see attitude of “high interest rates may last longer.”

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar, this week will usher in a busy macro data release

In terms of digital currencies, BTC challenged the historical high again after returning to the $70,000 mark, reversed near $73,000, and pulled back to around $7 W. According to the data provided by Farside, BTC ETF had a large net outflow for the first time in the past day (-223.8 $M), mainly due to the sudden decrease in the buying flow of IBIT and FBTC, which was difficult to balance the outflow of GBTC of more than $300 $M in a single day. This may be one of the negative factors affecting the continued upward trend of BTC prices yesterday.

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView, BTC failed to challenge the historical high, the price fell back to 70,000 US dollars

Source: Farside Investors, BTC ETF saw a large net outflow, mainly due to the sharp decrease in buying flow of IBIT and FBTC

In other places that can reflect market sentiment, we have observed that after BTC futures leveraged longs suffered a large number of liquidations in the previous week, the funding rate level also fell significantly. On the other hand, the short-term Vol Skew reflected by the options market was In the past three days, it has gradually pulled back above the zero axis, the front-end implied volatility has dropped significantly, and the curve has steepened. Emotions of all kinds seem to reflect a cooling off.

Source: Coinglass, after the leveraged long positions were liquidated some time ago, the funding rate level has been adjusted back

Source: Deribit (as of 3A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol, front-end implied volatility falls again

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew, short-term Vol Skew gradually rebounded back to positive

From the trading point of view, the recent Vol Premium brought by the difference between IV and RV has attracted bearish short-term volatility transactions. ETH's Put at 3400 this week was sold off in large quantities. In terms of BTC, this view is more realized by Sell Put/Call Spread, which protects the profit and loss in extreme cases. At the same time, a large amount of net selling at 75000-C at the end of April may question whether BTC can break through the historical high this month. But in the long term, BTC still received a lot of large OTM call option transactions, with an exercise price of up to 100,000/200,000 US dollars.

Source：SignalPlus

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade