Macroeconomics and news:
Today's macroeconomic theme is still the rate cut expectations and non-agricultural data.
Today's non-agricultural data was released, with a value of 30.3, which was significantly higher than the previous value and expectations. The data proved that the US job market is strong, the unemployment rate is low, and the corporate profitability is good. The US stock market opened directly up. Although the sentiment of the US stock market has been buffered, this data may not be conducive to the Fed's expectation of a quick rate cut. The possibility of a rate cut in July has increased, and the expectation of a rate cut in June has decreased.
This is the superficial result brought to us by the data, but what I want to say is that we can basically understand from March that in the future, it is difficult for us to predict the exact rhythm of the Fed's rate cut through data and various actions of the United States.
The economic sense of central banks in various countries is more sensitive than ours, and this time the Fed successfully fooled Japan to raise interest rates and Switzerland to cut interest rates. Even they were misled by the Fed's tricks, not to mention us retail investors, so the same sentence, the Fed's rate cut expectations may be manipulated. But fundamentally, the internal problems of the United States are serious, and rate cuts are still the main theme of this year's economy.
Unless the Fed finds enough reasons not to cut interest rates this year, it is unlikely at present.
Therefore, we will still face more smoke bomb data and speeches from the Federal Reserve in the future.
As for the crypto market and US stocks, since the main theme of this year remains unchanged, there will be no so-called big negative news for the time being. Short-term data negative news and expected negative news can only limit the active market sentiment, but cannot directly affect the change of the general trend. So when the negative data landed, we clearly saw that the risk market relaxed and began to rebound.
For the crypto market, the current weakening of Ethereum has caused the ratio of Bitcoin to Ethereum to expand to 20, which is the largest value since April 21. And Bloomberg said that the market's risk appetite is weakening. If it continues to develop, it may lead to a weakening of Bitcoin's price rebound and a successful peak.
However, I personally believe that the current situation is caused by the natural weakness of Ethereum after Cancun, and the market sector has always focused on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has led to a large influx of funds into Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ecosystem. At the same time, there is also the over-the-counter ETF market, which is actually robbing the on-site funds of the data encryption market in disguise, and under the premise of high interest rates, it does lead to insufficient on-site funds, and funds can only rotate.
But I still believe that as long as Bitcoin stabilizes and maintains volatility, there will still be many narratives and hype points in the altcoin market. In addition, the recent enthusiasm for Bitcoin halving has not fermented, and it may also need an opportunity to trigger it.
#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥
