Yesterday (4 APR), the US Treasury yields fell sharply during the US trading session due to the unexpected slowdown in the growth of the service industry, which supported the expectation of interest rate cuts. However, many Fed officials later spread intensive hawkish remarks to the market, repeatedly mentioning that the current inflation level is still too high and that clearer progress needs to be seen before starting to cut interest rates. Among them, the "Eagle King" Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said in March that he predicted only two interest rate cuts this year, and if inflation progress stops, especially under the premise of a strong economy, there may be no need to cut interest rates this year. Such a series of speeches caused the US Treasury yields to rebound and recover most of the lost ground. The current two-year/ten-year yields are 4.660%/4.337% respectively. US stocks reversed their gains in the late trading, and the S&P/Dow/Nasdaq finally closed down -1.23%/-1.35%/-1.4%.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

In terms of digital currency, BTC broke through $69,000 during the day and then fell back to around $67,000, with the implied volatility level rising slightly by 1 to 2% Vol. However, it is still slightly lower than last week's 5-8% Vol. On the other hand, Vol Skew has not changed significantly and is still near the low 25th percentile of the historical three-month data.

In terms of trading, ETH’s Put is still ignored, and the call options with the front end of 0.1 ~ 0.15 Delta (12 APR 3700-C/19 APR 3900-C/26 APR 4000-C) were sold in large quantities. For BTC, 12 APR 24 70000-C was under strong selling pressure, 26 APR 24 formed a Long Call Spread Flow with 73000 as the dividing point, and in June, a group of 20 0x 4 Long ButterFly from bulk was harvested. It seems that we can see the limited bullish views expressed by traders in the near future and the outlook for long-term volatility.

Source: Deribit (as of 3A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution, Calls around 0.1 to 0.15 Delta were sold off

Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade