The big non-agricultural data is about to be released, the risk market is seeking new optimistic expectations, and Bitcoin has started a slight rebound!
Hi, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Uncle Cat’s encrypted world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 67,800. Bitcoin rebounded after fluctuating at the core support of 65,000 for one day.
Friday is the day when the Federal Reserve releases the major non-farm data. As Powell’s speech on Thursday solidified the determination to cut interest rates in 24 years, the risk market is optimistically looking for new opportunities through tomorrow’s employment data.
The best opportunity is when the data announces a mild decline in the job market. The Fed has no reason to continue to change its original interest rate cut expectations. At the same time, the employment data also guarantees the Fed's work and its vision of a soft landing in the future.
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Bitcoin is currently rebounding from support at 65,000 again, and the strong support at 65,000 is temporarily valid.
By observing the trend of Bitcoin daily, we can basically see that in the 29-day operation cycle, the price of Bitcoin is below 65,000 for only 6 days, and most of the time it is above 65,000, either rising or falling and stabilizing. Therefore, under the premise of 65,000 support, in addition to the technical support, there is also support after the chips are changed hands.
At present, the rebound of Bitcoin has temporarily broken through the resistance levels of the 1-hour Bollinger Band and the 4-hour Bollinger Band middle line. The nearest upper resistance level is near the daily Bollinger Band middle line of 67,700. After the breakthrough, continue to look at the small resistance level near 70,000, and finally there is the resistance situation of 72,550 on the daily line.
It should be noted that if the resistance level of 67,700 is successfully broken, the price of Bitcoin will temporarily return to the upper track of the Bollinger Band, which will be more advantageous for the price confidence of Bitcoin in the later period.
Of course, looking at the current situation of Bitcoin, many people think that if it doesn’t rise, it will fall. Of course, I also respect this point of view, so if a Bitcoin falls below the support, let’s take a look at the support situation below.
The first support, 65,000, is a short-term support with strong support strength. The support is provided by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band, the auxiliary support is provided by the weekly EMA7, and the auxiliary support is provided by the lower line of the 1-hour Bollinger Band. The weekly EMA7 has now moved up to around 65,500.
The second support, 62,500, is a short-term support with weak support. This support is provided by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band. Once the price falls below the 65,000 support and the market sentiment deteriorates, this support may only serve as a buffer zone.
The third support, 61,300, is a short-term support and the strongest support. This support is provided by the Fibonacci retracement gold support formed by the historical low and the highest level from 22 years to now. Secondly, the 3-day Bollinger band middle line provides auxiliary support. This support is strong, but the pressure it faces is also great. Once the price falls below the 65,000 monthly support and the daily Bollinger band range, the current position may become a key position to support the rebound. Of course, we still need to wait until the trend reaches this support before we analyze it in detail.
My personal expectation is that the risk market has temporarily gotten rid of the negative sentiment brought about by the Fed's delay in raising interest rates. Powell's speech in the early morning also strengthened the expectation that interest rates will be cut in 2024. What remains is when and how many times interest rates will be cut. After the release of Friday's big non-agricultural data, the risk market will usher in a certain emotional rebound.
The RSI relative strength index has rebounded to around 48, and the sentiment is relatively neutral. There will be no overbought correction sentiment in the short term.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing signs of rebound and U.S. stocks are opening higher. We will pay attention to changes in market data later.
Market dynamics and capital changes: (yesterday's data is not counted, directly compare with Wednesday's data)
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased.)
The current total market value is 2.671 trillion, an increase of 91 billion compared to Wednesday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 132.88 billion, an increase of 44.1 billion compared to Wednesday.
Ethereum's market value is 405 billion, an increase of 10.3 billion compared to Wednesday.
The total market value decreased by 91 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum increased by 54.4 billion, and the rest was the market value increase of 36.6 billion for copycats.
Bitcoin accounts for 49.8% of the market, which is unchanged compared to Tuesday. Ethereum accounts for 15.2%, which is 10 basis points lower than Wednesday. Altcoin accounts for 35%, which is 10 basis points higher than Wednesday.
In terms of trading volume:
The total transaction volume was 106.9 billion, a decrease of 36.9 billion compared with Wednesday.
Bitcoin: 32.6 billion, a decrease of 6.6 billion compared to Wednesday.
Ethereum 13.9 billion, a decrease of 7.1 billion compared to Wednesday.
The total transaction volume of the altcoin was 60.4 billion, a decrease of 23.2 billion compared with Wednesday.
Funding:
The total on-site funds were 153.9 billion, an increase of 2.7 billion compared with Wednesday, and the funds accounted for 5.77%, a decrease of 9 basis points compared with Wednesday.
USDT: Market value of 106.42 billion, an increase of 1.77 billion USD compared to Wednesday; trading volume of 58.8 billion, a decrease of 36.7%.
USDC: Market value of 33 billion, an increase of 120 million US dollars compared to Wednesday, trading volume of 11.05 billion, a 4% increase in trading volume
The overall market data is still very good. Although our data on Wednesday was not updated in time, judging from the increase in today's data, Wednesday's data is an improvement compared to Tuesday.
This Monday we mentioned a theory in the falling support. As the first week of April, the crypto market does not need to perform well. It just needs to be stable and get better day by day.
In terms of market value, the market value increased slightly today. Compared with Monday to now, the market value has gone from a decline to an increase.
In terms of trading volume, the price rebound of Bitcoin has led to a rebound in the price of Ethereum altcoins, and the trading volume has decreased, proving that the selling pressure has not increased during the rebound and the short-term bullish force has increased.
In terms of funds, the on-site funds increased by 2.7 billion, while the off-site funds, Asian funds inflowed 1.77 billion in two days, and the inflow of funds from the United States was not large, but the market as a whole still had a net inflow of 1.89 billion US dollars. The inflow of funds increased. However, there are still 810 million funds in the on-site funds that choose to stay in the market after leaving the transaction.
Although the reduction in trading funds has been transferred into retained funds, the flow of funds is healthy.
If we compare the data on Monday and Tuesday, we can clearly see that the data on Thursday is better, whether it is market capitalization, trading volume or funds, which proves that the market is developing in a positive direction.
The expectation is still the same. Once the negative non-farm data is released tomorrow, Friday, the risk market will not be too pessimistic as long as there is a possibility of a rate cut in 2024, even if it is postponed. However, if there is talk of no rate cut this year, the market may react a little.
Macroeconomics and news:
Because Powell "painted a rosy picture" for the world in the early morning, expectations in the risk market are gradually becoming optimistic.
Currently, the U.S. stock market opened higher and continued to rise, driven by technology stocks. Although the U.S. non-farm data will be released tomorrow, the risk market is trying to find a reasonable reason or expectation to prove that tomorrow's data will not hinder the expectation of a rate cut, and also prove that the labor market is slowly cooling down.
Please note that the soft data means a gradual cooling, not a direct decline. The current data given is that the previous value of the non-farm data is 27.5 and the expected value is 20. If it meets expectations or even falls short of expectations, it will prove that the labor market has declined significantly. In this case, it may force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible.
However, I personally feel that a quick rate cut may not be what the Fed wants at the moment, so under the Fed's data "game", it is expected that tomorrow's data may be between 25-26, which is much higher than the expected value and slightly lower than the previous value. Such data will support the expectation of a rate cut in crude oil, that is, in June or July. At the same time, the slow cooling of the labor market is also proving that economic growth is slowing down, which is conducive to a soft landing.
Of course, there is another possibility that the data is greater than the previous value, the labor market is overheated, inflationary pressure increases, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is greatly reduced, and the rate cut range is greatly reduced. Personally, I expect that the possibility of such data appearing is small.
In the first article today, I mentioned a point of view that the current high and strong US dollar index and US stocks may be what the Fed wants. Through data and market sentiment adjustment, the two-way ability to attract funds can be maintained.
At the same time, we also need to pay attention to the situation of the gold market. Currently, gold has broken through the historical high and ushered in a bull market, but the struggle for pricing power is also brewing. For American funds that are accustomed to control, they may not give up the pricing power of the gold market so quickly. In the future, they may have to make certain corresponding actions on gold. For details, you can refer to the first article released today.
Secondly, the pricing power of the gold market is actually reflecting the pricing power of the crypto market or Bitcoin in the future. Currently, Bitcoin chips are constantly being absorbed by the market and institutions. At present, the competition for pricing power has not yet begun, but in fact, there are already hidden dangers. In the financial market, whoever controls the pricing power has the ability and right to use the market to harvest funds in a targeted manner.
At present, due to the risk of the Federal Reserve delaying the interest rate cut, a large amount of funds from the sale of U.S. bonds have flowed into the gold market. Although Powell tried to use his speech to save the situation, the potential risks in the gold market still exist.
In terms of crypto market news, the most recent foreign media reports on crypto are about executives or institutions of traditional companies transforming and investing in the crypto market. After the passage of the Bitcoin ETF, although the market is sluggish in the short term, traditional institutions' recognition of the crypto market is increasing.
It is worth noting here that Neoclassic Capital was founded by two senior executives of Goldman Sachs in 2013. Its investment scope covers derivatives, tokens, games, and entertainment. The company is mainly responsible for investing in blockchain projects. DYDX also has the shadow of the company's investment. At the same time, these two people came from Goldman Sachs. I think Goldman Sachs' position in the traditional investment field is self-evident, and their entry into the crypto market, the actions and resources they bring, also deserve our more attention.
Market summary:
Bitcoin has started to rebound. Combined with the breakthrough of resistance level in my Bitcoin analysis, once it breaks through, it can continue to look upward. The current rebound is temporarily standing on the upper track of the Bollinger band of the daily line. What is left is stabilization, either breakthrough, or oscillation and turnover above the key position to consolidate the subsequent trend.
The daily Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking. If the price of Bitcoin stabilizes on the upper Bollinger Bands and then the daily Bollinger Bands close above it, it will directly test the weekly resistance level and may even set a new historical high.
Of course, the current daily trend of Bitcoin has just broken through and has not yet stabilized. If you go long directly on the contract, there are still risks. Control the risks yourself.
At present, the only focus of the market this week is the release of the big non-agricultural data tomorrow. In the previous section, I have detailed the different stimulations brought by several data. The most optimistic one is that the release value is around 25-26, which is slightly lower than the previous value and much higher than expected.
Of course, if Bitcoin consolidates its current position above 67,500 before the weekend and after tomorrow’s data, then the altcoin market will see a recovery over the weekend. This week we can clearly see that the altcoin market remains quite active. All we have to do is hold on to our coins and wait. During the Bitcoin halving period, we will adjust our positions appropriately.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
