Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $70,000. 10 Bitcoins are worth about $700,000. A netizen raised an interesting question: If you were asked to own 10 Bitcoins or $1 million for 5 years, which one would you choose? (Assuming you cannot exchange $1 million for Bitcoin)

It is now April 2024. Five years later, it will be April 2029.

Let's do a look-ahead exercise.

If you hold Bitcoin, you will experience two halvings in the next five years. One time will be around April-May 2024, and the other time will be 2028, four years later. After two halvings, the issuance rate of BTC will drop from 6.25 BTC per block today to 1.5625 BTC. That is, the annual output will drop from 328,500 coins in 2023 to a mere 82,125 coins! This means that the price of BTC would have to increase at least 4x before miners would be able to pay security fees comparable to those in 2023.

Looking at the power law price corridor, the middle track of BTC in April 2029 is US$396,000, the lower track is US$140,000, and the upper track is US$1.234 million.

In the micro-bull-bear cycle, 2025 and 2029 are likely to be the so-called bull market between the middle track and the upper track. Then in April 2029, the bull market price will most likely be above the middle track, that is, US$400,000 to US$1 million. At the bottom of 2026, which may be the worst, the lower track is exactly the current height - US$70,000.

If you develop according to this assumption, if you choose to hold 10 Bitcoins, by April 2029, five years later, you may have wealth worth more than 4 million U.S. dollars.

Holding 1 million U.S. dollars, you are likely to experience a new round of U.S. dollar easing cycle in the next five years. Current signs show that the Federal Reserve will most likely enter the interest rate cut channel this year. Generally speaking, after the interest rate cut channel is opened, a easing cycle will start for as short as 3 years and as long as 6 or 7 years.

Now, the United States, which is tight at both ends, wants to gain another chance before letting go. So Powell (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) played the bad role, Yellen (U.S. Treasury Secretary) played the white face, and Allison (founding dean of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the proposer of Thucydides’ Trap Theory) Red face. The black-faced man is hiding far away on the other side of the ocean, singing eagle loudly, but he can't conceal his aura of being strong on the outside but indifferent on the inside. Bai Lian visited again this month, softly begging for peace, but still unable to reconcile the internal tears. The red-faced man was one step ahead and put forward the new theory of "Wu and Yue are in the same boat", hoping to defeat others without fighting.

To maintain strategic focus, we must neither be intimidated by harsh words, nor fall for soft words, nor be deceived by nonsense.

This is the basic skill for successful investment.

The same goes for hoarding Bitcoins.

According to estimates by the Bank of America, by the end of December this year, if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the federal government will have to pay up to $1.6 trillion in annual interest on U.S. debt!

Therefore, there are only two paths before the U.S. dollar:

Or, the Fed cuts interest rates quickly, which results in explosive inflation.

Or, the Fed insists on keeping interest rates high and not lowering them, causing the interest rates on US debt to explode, and paying a large amount of US dollar interest to the market every year. The end result is still an explosion of inflation.

Jiao Liu qun + Wei: 2758624303 And Bitcoin is a hedge against the explosion of US dollar inflation.

There are a lot of unwise investments in today's market. A lot of improper investments are nothing more than blind and pathetic herd behavior driven by inflation.

People who are not good at investing are driven by inflation to invest their hard-earned savings for many years into various assets, various investment projects, and various financial products that are either going to be hit or are about to be hit. They are like moths flying to each other. Like fire.

Investing doesn’t have to be so hard. What you need is not investment, but just savings – real savings that can maintain their value.

Save Bitcoin. Then it’s time to eat, play, and sleep. From now on, stay away from upside-down dreams and have no worries or worries. #大盘走势 #Meme #BTC