#大盘走势
Black swan theory envelopes the market again!
In fact, many Square fans only know that black swan means a big plunge, so they don’t even know the definition of the word black swan!
A black swan event refers to an event in which people's perceptions are often found to be wrong. In the financial industry, it is generally a major unexpected event that has a very large impact and a very low probability of occurrence. Once it occurs, it will produce destructive fluctuations.
The reason why it is called black swan is because initially everyone thought that all swans were white, and everyone thought so at the time. Until the black swan was discovered later, the world view of "all swans are white" was shattered. People's fair information was wrong.
For example, Brexit was something that even the British themselves did not think of. Opinion polls at the time showed that many people who voted to leave the EU thought that others would vote to remain in the EU, so they wanted to do the opposite. As a result, everyone thought so, so the British woke up the next day and found that they had announced that they were leaving the European Union. Then they went to Google to search what the EU was and what the impact would be if they left.
As for the cause, most of it is the situation of Brexit, which is the so-called upset.
If someone says that there will definitely be a black swan in absolute time, or that there will definitely be no black swan, they will all be treated as a bully.
The definition of black swan is "unpredictable risk accident". Since it is unpredictable, don't use the word "certain".
1. There will be a washout before the start of the bull market, but it is not necessarily caused by black swans. It can be caused by technical callbacks. Washing the dishes ≠ black swan.
2. Black swans don’t wait to appear, so don’t expect black swans to come and buy the bottom for you. Black swans often appear when you least expect them.
3. The idea is to focus on prevention. This is a probabilistic event, that is, it "may" happen, so prepare a response plan in advance.
4. Opportunities are hidden in danger. If a black swan appears, it will be an excellent opportunity to enter the market, but human fear will prevent most people from doing so.
So as the market has developed to this point, we have guessed based on previous predictions that there will be a black swan-style plunge and a mad bull start. Then what we need to do is to predict and prevent, reduce holdings of some small currencies, and be cautious in taking long-term contracts. !
Black swans are unpredictable, but corrections and washouts are inevitable. If a car wants to go far, it needs to lose weight. Institutional currency circles will not use all leverage to make money!
The last 90% of the contract is a liquidation.
Of course, dishwashing does not mean an absolute bad thing, but it is another opportunity to get rich.
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