What will the price be after ALEO is launched and how will it perform? I believe this is an issue that many people are concerned about. Let me briefly analyze the possible price performance of ALEO after it is launched. (Personal point of view, only for reference)
First, let’s analyze it from the perspective of market capitalization.
The initial total supply of ALEO is 1.5 billion, with 35% allocated to early supporters, 25% to public distribution, 16% to employees and contributors, 10% to the company, 8% to strategic partners, and 6% to the foundation.
We all know that the coins of institutions and projects are not circulated when they go online, and are locked for one year before they are released. Therefore, the coins that circulate when they go online are 25% of the public distribution, 375 million coins. This is based on existing news analysis. After all, the project team did not say how much the circulation will be when it goes online. There are also various online reports. Some say 500 million, some say 600 million. Anyway, it cannot be more than half. Let us calculate it based on the circulation of 400 to 600 million coins. .
Currently, UNI ranks 20th in terms of market capitalization, with a market value of $7.274 billion. If ALEO enters the top 20 in terms of market value after its launch, based on a circulation volume of 400 million to 600 million, the price will be $12 to $18.
Currently, AVAX ranks 10th in terms of market capitalization, with a market capitalization of $21.85 billion. If ALEO enters the top 10 in terms of market capitalization after its launch, based on a circulation volume of 400 million to 600 million, the price will be $36 to $55.
Secondly, we analyze ALEO as the total market value of a basic L1 public chain.
First place: Ethereum’s fully circulated market value is $414.788 billion (first tier)
Second place: SOL fully circulated market value: 108.445 billion US dollars (second tier)
Third place: BNB’s fully circulated market value is 87.164 billion US dollars (second tier)
I won’t write about the rest one by one. The fully circulated market value of the third-tier public chains is around 20 to 30 billion US dollars.
If ALEO only enters the third tier after its launch, its fully circulated market value will be 20 to 30 billion US dollars, and its price will be between 13 and 20 US dollars.
After ALEO went online, it was in the third echelon in the public chain. I felt that it was underestimated, so I put it between the third echelon and the second echelon. The fully circulated market value is between 50 billion and 60 billion, and the price of ALEO is between 33 and 40 US dollars.
Based on ALEO’s market popularity and the technological achievements it has, I think it will not be a problem for ALEO to enter the top 10 in terms of market capitalization, and the price will be between US$36 and US$55.
Many people on the Internet say that ALEO will surpass Ethereum. I won’t say much here, but in my opinion, it is almost inevitable for ALEO to enter the second echelon and keep pace with SOL and BNB. As for catching up with and surpassing Ethereum, it depends on ALEO’s performance and the development of its ecosystem after it goes online. Moreover, this cannot be achieved in a short period of time and requires two to three years of development.
The implementation of ecological applications and the price discovery of Aleo require time and opportunities, which is estimated to be about two to three years. In two years, the number of ALEO will be about 2.2 billion. If ALEO can surpass BNB and SOL and catch up with Ethereum, its total supply market value should be around 200 billion to 300 billion US dollars, so the price of the coin can reach about 130 US dollars.
Summarize:
According to the above analysis, the starting price of Aleo after it goes online should be 30-50 USD. After a period of market adjustment, the price will rise to 50-80 USD. Once the ecological application is implemented, the price will reach 100-150 USD. The higher price will depend on the later market environment, the implementation of more forms of ecological applications, our imagination and market copycat.
