I will explain the 2 important levels I follow in Bitcoin and the reasons in 4 articles (61K and 51K).
I will follow these 2 levels when creating my medium-term investment strategy.
1 Technical Data📈
This is the ascending channel that I have been following in Bitcoin since January 2024 and it has provided returns of up to 84%.
It is expected that it would be technically healthy to see a correction after such a rise in a short time. The two levels I follow in the short and medium term are 61K and 51K respectively (the reason is FRVP intense clearing levels). We have seen contact with the first of these levels in the past few days and if it can stay above here it is positive. However, if it falls below, I keep the possibility of testing 51K on the table.
When we look at technical data (in the daily period), momentum, RSI and ADX give us signs that the sellers are gaining strength.
2 NUPL 🧐
Let's examine NUPL data historically.
Before the bull cycles, whenever the NUPL data exceeded 0.5 points (first contact before the bull run), it was always subject to a correction (I will write in detail).
It is currently at 0.58 points and the trend has been weak lately.
3 Pi Cycle Balls 🧷
Pi Cycle Top shows us again that 350DMA (x2) is a serious resistance.
When we examine the Pi Cycle Top data historically, we see that the green trend (350 DMA) is a serious resistance in bull cycles. The next weekly closings above here are very important. I will continue to update this data.
4 Spot ETF Realized Price ⚔️
When we look at the Spot ETF RP, we see that it is currently 51.7K.
Since the price of Bitcoin is above this level, it would not be a mistake to predict that this level will increase day by day. At the end of the day, this level coincides with the 2nd critical level I mentioned above.
✅ Result
As I always say, we can expect a 50% retracement/reaction after a trend, regardless of whether it is rising or falling.
It is impossible to predict the bottom or top, but current data indicate that a possible correction may occur around the 51 - 56K region.
