On April 20, 2024, Bitcoin will usher in its fourth halving. Achao will take you to review the market trends of previous halvings.
First halving: November 28, 2012
Before the halving cycle, Bitcoin experienced a cycle from June to November 2011, when the price fell from $31 to $2, a drop of more than 90%.
In November 2012, Bitcoin halved for the first time, but the price began to rise in November 2011 and continued to rise after the halving until it reached a record high of $1,200 in November 2013. In the first cycle, the price skyrocketed after the halving, rising to $13 before the halving and to $1,200 after the halving. The overall price rose by 350-400 times in this cycle.
In fact, before the halving, Bitcoin only increased fourfold. After the halving, it increased nearly 100 times to reach a peak of $1,200.
What followed was a 14-month deep bear market, with the price of Bitcoin falling more than 80% to a low of around $200. Over the next 10 months, the price of Bitcoin remained between $200 and $300.
Second Bitcoin halving: July 10, 2016
This cycle, several venture capital firms and hedge funds have observed the first cycle of Bitcoin and entered the market.
Before the official halving in July 2016, the price of Bitcoin began to rise sharply from November 2015, reaching an all-time high of $19,000 in December 2017.
In this halving cycle, most of Bitcoin’s appreciation also occurred after the halving. It rose to US$650 before the halving and rose parabolically to US$19,000 after the halving. The entire cycle rose by about 80-90 times, but the increase before the halving was about 3 times.
After this halving cycle, Bitcoin experienced a 12-month deep bear market, with prices falling by more than 80% again, reaching a low of around $3,000. For the next four months, Bitcoin hovered between $3,000 and $4,000.
Bitcoin's third halving: May 12, 2020
As before, before the halving, Bitcoin started to rise from about US$7,000 in November 2019, but there was a plunge caused by the epidemic on March 12, 2020. At the time of halving, Bitcoin was about US$10,000. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached a high of US$69,000.
Subsequently, Bitcoin began to enter a deep bear market, falling to a low of $15,000, a drop of about 75%.
Several points can be seen from each halving: 1. The market starts to speculate more than half a year before the halving; 2. The increase after the halving is larger, but the increase is decreasing with each halving because the market value is getting bigger and bigger; 3. The four-year cycle is very obvious, with small increases, big increases, big decreases, and small decreases.
Around May 2024, Bitcoin will experience its fourth halving. Based on historical experience, the hype will probably begin in October.
Although some funds have already started to enter the market, the most important factor affecting the market conditions of the entire crypto market in the coming months will still be the tightening of funds caused by the US interest rate hike and balance sheet reduction. If there is a big drop, and then the halving market speculation starts, it will be perfect in conjunction with the Fed's interest rate cut. $BTC $BTC
