When the big pie market starts to get out of control, and the cottage industry collapses, you have to believe that Uncle San, like everyone else, is bearing the shrinkage of assets brought by the big pie. The only difference between me and everyone may be that I will pay attention to the causes of the current trend in a timely manner, and then judge the possible short- and medium-term impacts, and then draw conclusions to cheer everyone up and replenish their faith.

With the market reaching this point, there is no doubt that 73,800 points is not the high point of this bull market, and the road ahead is still very high and long. In the last bull market cycle, the market experienced a total of four major corrections before the market reached its peak. Then the copycats collectively shrank and the market reached a new high for the fifth time. After that, the trend completely turned around. Since October last year, it has been experiencing at least the second decent correction.

Perhaps everyone has not yet recovered from the bear market and will not be able to accept such violent fluctuations for a while. Or maybe it has not recovered from the thousand-fold increase in the MEME coin in the Solana ecosystem in the past two days, and cannot adapt to today's decline of more than ten or twenty points in copycats. But the market has already arrived, and for many of us, it’s time to move forward bravely.

This bull market has two core driving forces. One is the adoption of ETF, which brings huge incremental funds. The other is to cut interest rates, which will give a stronger impetus when funds are already accelerating. The current market driving force brought about by the adoption of the big-pie ETF is obvious to all, and the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is also on the agenda. And as time goes by, the time node for the interest rate cut will become more clear, and the intensity of the interest rate cut will also be will be clearer.

We have always known the certainty of the market, so Sanshu has always emphasized that for a long time in the future, the correction of the market is uncertain, but the trend of a bull market is certain. The purpose of telling everyone to stay away from leverage is also to avoid the current market situation. The market does not lack opportunities, it only lacks principal. A week ago, Sanshu’s article said that the upcoming Japanese yen interest rate hike may cause the US stock market to fall by about 9%. The retracement under the linkage of the big pie is expected to be between 9% and 18%. Under the influence of FOMO sentiment, basically The entire Internet ignored the possible impact of the news being implemented.

For Uncle San and some of his partners who have been following closely, the price of chips in the early stage is low enough, and another cut in half will not hurt the capital. The decline of the big pie has even led to a disproportionate decline in the price of the copycats, which is a very real opportunity for us to get on board. After this battle, in the short term, there may no longer be a cheaper opportunity to enter the market, and those partners who are in panic or eager to chase the rise in the early stage of FOMO will also be able to make a profit in the future if they sum up properly. Add enough knowledge to your transactions.

In macro news, grayscale GBTC sales yesterday reached the largest level since the adoption of the ETF, so that the overall ETF buying and selling data during the day showed a net outflow for the second time. At present, the total selling of Grayscale has reached 250,000 pieces, and the other nine ETFs have a total net inflow of 465,000 pieces. There is no obvious reversal trend in the buying and selling data between institutions.

The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting officially decided to end the negative interest rate policy that has lasted for 17 years, raising interest rates from -0.1% to 0%-0.1%. In the short term, it may lead to a sharp decline in cheap money around the world, rising pressure on U.S. debt, and accelerated risk capital flight. Therefore, when the U.S. interest rate swap market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June is less than 50%, the possibility of a black swan or sub-black swan is relatively high.

At 2 o'clock in the evening, the Federal Reserve will hold its March interest rate meeting. It has basically become a short-term consensus to maintain high interest rates in the previous period. What needs to be noted is what Powell will do after the meeting. If the stance is hawkish, coupled with the heat wave of interest rate hikes in the past two months, it will actually accelerate the rate cut starting in June.

To survive in the currency circle, you must first learn to wait for opportunities. Whatever you cannot learn, the market will educate you through actual trends until your position returns to zero. Some people think this wave of decline is lucky, while others think it is unfortunate, but Sanshu believes that Niu Chu’s extreme test must be lucky for most people. Those partners who are good at summarizing experience and lessons will continue to do so. The next market journey will definitely yield better results.

BTC: The bottom of the day is near 62,400 points. From the perspective of leverage liquidation, the current washout is undoubtedly successful. However, when market panic has already occurred, in the short term, we want to quickly pull the market back to the past. There are certain technical difficulties at the high level. The overnight meeting, as well as the expectation that the market will be adjusted again in the short term, the combined results of the data and technical aspects are that the market is close to bottoming out. If it can continue to fall below 60,000 points, it will be best, according to the correction amplitude of the bull market. Calculating the ultimate bottom of the pie is also near 59,000 points, and it tends to proceed in a pin-inserting manner. Objectively speaking, Sanshu believes that the current short-term negative decline will do great harm to the market. If the short-term momentum is insufficient and overnight institutional buying is too strong, a short-term halt to the decline cannot be ruled out. In any case, holding positions at the bottom of the pie to the current high level will not have much impact on Uncle San and many of his early follow-up partners. This position will not be sold in any case. As long as he dares to fall, buy it.

ETH: Ether has been replenished by 10%, so I won’t pay attention to it in the short term.

Sectors that can be bought at the bottom while continuing to explore, SSV, SOL, OP, FTM, STX (for example, the Carnival HK conference in mid-April will definitely be hyped, and the European Cup fan coins section in June will also be full of opportunities)

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot stocks! ​​​#热门话题 #slerf #sol #BTC #ETH $BTC