Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Analysis: Peak at $155,000 by August 2025
Long-term technical analysis suggests a peak of Bitcoin price in the $155,000 - $175,000 range.
Although subsequent cycles are weakening, Bitcoin still has a chance to surge 10x from the macro bottom at $15,495.
The peak of the current BTC cycle should be reached between April and August 2025.
This week Bitcoin touched its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 from November 2021. After 847 days, the largest cryptocurrency has returned to the top of the previous cycle and may soon enter the price discovery territory again.
This historic event is perfect for comparing data from previous Bitcoin cycles. Long-term technical analysis of previous cycles allows us to estimate the peak of the BTC price for the current cycle and when it should be reached.
Perhaps the upcoming halving of Bitcoin is still the basis for determining the 4-year cycles of the cryptocurrency market. If so, a new bull market could take the BTC price to the $155,000 – $175,000 range, which should be reached somewhere between April and August 2025.
The Lows and Peaks of Bitcoin Historical Cycles
The first and most obvious set of data that can be obtained from historical cycles is information on the lows and peaks of the BTC price. One can estimate the likely peak of that cycle by measuring the decreasing proportion between the price range of successive cycles.
The initial uptrend, which began with BTC valued at $0.01, ended with a peak at $31.90 in June 2011. Bitcoin then plunged to a first-cycle low of $2.01 in November 2011.
This event started the bull market following the first halving (November 2012). Bitcoin price increased to the historic ATH at $1,177 in November 2013. Thus, the bull market led to an increase of 586x. This was followed by the 2014 bear market, which took the BTC price to a macro bottom at $164 in January 2015. From then until December 2017, Bitcoin again experienced a long-term uptrend.
In July 2016(halviy). The peak of the BTC price was at $19,764.