High-energy warning: This article is long, but if you read it carefully, it will help you understand the crypto market fundamentally and the reasons behind the market's ups and downs. In this way, you can formulate your own investment strategy and avoid "making money by luck and losing it by strength".

In February, Bitcoin stood out from the crowd and soared all the way to a high of $64,000 (Binance data), and finally closed up 43.57%, just a 7% increase away from its all-time high of $69,000. This increase is also very explosive in history, and it can be said that the performance is beyond the expectations of most people.

In March, there were only 56 days left until the fourth Bitcoin halving. The closer we got to this important moment, the more excited and nervous we became. On the one hand, Bitcoin had been rising sharply with almost no decent pullback, and most altcoins followed the decline but not the rise. On the other hand, historically, there was always a large pullback before Bitcoin halving, such as:

In 2016, the retracement before the halving was -38%;

In 2020, the retracement before halving was -20%;

Before the halving in 2020, the black swan of the epidemic caused a tragic 3.12 crash. This made many people wonder: Will March continue the big rise in February and break the historical high in one fell swoop? Or will there be a big correction before the halving?

Although we cannot predict the future, we can prepare in advance by paying attention to scheduled events and find our own investment ideas and wealth codes.

It is a good habit for investors to check the financial calendar regularly and formulate countermeasures in advance. Because in addition to the uncertain "black swan" events that can cause sudden changes in the market, scheduled events can also make the market crazy.

Genge has compiled for you some major events that will happen in March both inside and outside the circle (please see the picture at the end of the article for details). These events may affect the rise and fall of the entire market to varying degrees, and even affect the progress of the entire fourth round of halving.

What has been the historical return rate of Bitcoin in March?

Before we officially start the article, let’s first review: What was the rate of return of Bitcoin in March in history?

I specifically pulled data from Binance and third-party data website Tradingview, and filtered and counted them. The results are as follows:

As can be seen from the above chart, Bitcoin has generally had more negative returns in March in history. In the past 13 years, the number of times it closed up and closed down was 5:8, which is a poor performance overall. In addition, in the previous three halving years, namely: 2012, 2016, and 2020, all ended in decline;

Of course, the development of Bitcoin and the crypto market to this day has changed a lot in terms of industry ecology and consensus. This year, the Bitcoin spot ETF has also been approved. Let us wait and see how it will perform in the third month of 2024.

The three halving times in Bitcoin history are:

First halving: On November 28, 2012, the Bitcoin block reward was halved from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

Second halving: On July 9, 2016, the Bitcoin block reward was halved from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

The third halving: On May 12, 2020, the Bitcoin block reward was halved from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

What major events affect the market's "surge and plunge"?

March can be said to be a month of big events. The Federal Reserve led the world's three major central banks: the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, to hold a meeting to decide whether to raise or lower interest rates? This will directly affect the foundation of the bull market; ETH's spot ETF will also be reviewed by the US SEC for approval. If approved, the much-anticipated altcoin season may break out ahead of schedule; and cyclical events such as "Non-Farm Night" and US CPI will also cause the market to plummet and soar, which are also major events that we must pay attention to.

Note: All times mentioned below are Beijing time (UTC+8);

March 5th is the day for the US SEC to approve Fidelity's spot ETH ETF. Will it trigger the altcoin season?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF proposal until March 5.

In view of the crazy market performance after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF, ETH, as the second largest cryptocurrency in the market, will undoubtedly make the current market even more violent if the spot ETF is approved. After all, compared with BTC's dominance/loneliness, ETH's ecology is famously rich. Once it is approved, it may be "one person's success brings prosperity to the whole family", so we need to pay close attention to subsequent progress.

In addition, the final decision deadline for three Ethereum spot ETFs that have been applied for is the end of May 2024. Before that, the US SEC needs to make a final decision on whether to approve them. They are VanEck Ethereum ETF, Ark 21Shares Ethereum ETF and Hashdex Ethereum ETF, with final deadlines of May 23, May 24 and May 30.

The SEC also has to decide on Grayscale’s application by June 18, Invesco’s by July 5 and BlackRock’s by August 7.

Currently, Ethereum futures have been listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and an Ethereum futures ETF has been approved, which shows the market maturity and regulatory compliance of Ethereum. Some industry insiders believe that the probability of ETH spot ETF being approved in May is 70%.

March 7, ECB interest rate decision, Fed Chairman's speech and answers to reporters' questions

Specific time: March 7, 21:15.

The mainstream expectation is that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged, and the market expects the ECB to cut interest rates faster and more sharply than the United States this year because the U.S. economy is performing much better in comparison.

In addition, economists predict that the ECB will cut interest rates fewer times in 2024, with three cuts of 25 basis points this year, a decrease from the previous four times, and the first rate cut will be in June.

Specific time: Twice on March 7 and March 6, 23:00.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington, DC on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions. The testimony is divided into two parts, the first part is to read the prepared manuscript, and then the committee will conduct a question-and-answer session. During the question-and-answer portion of the testimony, the market is usually volatile. It is important to note that Powell's description of inflation and interest rate cut expectations may cause short-term sharp rises and falls, and those who have contract positions should pay attention to risk control.

On March 8, the U.S. "Non-Farm Night" hit, and the skyrocketing and plummeting happened in an instant

Specific time: March 8, 21:30.

The non-farm data released on the 2nd of last month showed that the number of employed people increased by 353,000, the largest increase since January 2023, nearly twice the expected increase, which further reduced the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in March. If the data performance is as expected, it will be a good start for the Fed's interest rate meeting in March.

Historically, there have been cases where non-farm data fell short of expectations, causing the market to plummet. For example, on December 3, 2021, the cryptocurrency market plummeted, with the number of new jobs less than half of expectations. At the moment the data was released, Bitcoin began to plummet, falling as much as 28%. Other altcoins also continued to fall along with Bitcoin, with declines of more than 30%, and the entire market was "red" across the board.

Fundamentally speaking, the non-farm payrolls index is so important because it reflects the development of the US manufacturing and service industries, is an important indicator of whether the US economy is running well, and is directly related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Therefore, every day when the non-farm payrolls data is released, it will cause a major earthquake in the global financial market, and that night is also called "non-farm payrolls night."

Of course, all rules are not 100% accurate. Coin friends need to treat the rules with caution and consider the combined effects of multiple influencing factors.

On March 12, the U.S. CPI for February was released, providing a direct reason for the Fed to raise interest rates.

Specific time: March 12, 20:30

Bringing inflation back to 2% is the Fed's long-term monetary policy goal, and the importance of CPI is self-evident. However, the CPI data in recent months has been fluctuating, which has reduced people's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year.

For example, the U.S. CPI for January released last month increased by 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected increase of 2.9%, and the CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the expected increase of 0.2%. This series of data may allow the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time.

The release of CPI is only 10 days away from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, so it is particularly important.

Knowledge point: Inflation rate = (CPI number of this period - CPI number of comparison period) / CPI number of comparison period, that is, the inflation rate will change according to the change of CPI. The increase of CPI determines the size of inflation rate. For example, the CPI of this period is 7%, and the CPI of comparison period is 6%, then the inflation rate = (7%-6%)/6%=16.67%.

On March 13, ETH Cancun upgrade, will it trigger the explosion of related concept currencies?

The main content of Ethereum’s Cancun upgrade includes EIP-4844, which is an optimization solution designed specifically for Layer 2. The core of the protocol is to allow the L2 network to perform calculations and verifications without permanently saving transaction data on the main chain. This means L2 can process transactions in a more efficient manner, significantly reducing transaction fees.

It can also be seen from the upgrade content that this will be a great benefit to Layer2 concept currencies, such as: MATIC, IMX, ARB, OP, NEAR, EGLD, LPT, etc., which may take the opportunity to pull up a wave. However, we must also pay attention to the risks of other situations. For example, on March 16, 1.11 billion ARB will be unlocked.

On March 21, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will make their interest rate decisions. Which is the most important and safest thing?

Specific time: March 21, the Federal Reserve is 2:00 and the Bank of England is 20:00.

As the most important financial event this month, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting may be the most stable.

At the press conference after the last interest rate meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell shattered expectations of a rate cut in March: he bluntly stated that he did not think the Fed would be able to gain enough confidence to determine that March was the time to cut interest rates when it met in March.

The market is currently postponing its expectations for a rate cut until May at the earliest. Some believe that the Fed's new dot plot in March suggests that there will only be two rate cuts (25 basis points each) this year instead of three.

Unless there are significant positive data released in March, such as non-farm data and CPI, there will basically be no interest rate cut. The focus of this meeting still needs to be on what Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says at the press conference - this may cause violent fluctuations in the crypto market.

Other important financial events

Unlocked coins: On March 1, DYDX unlocked 33.33 million coins and MANTA unlocked 1.87 million coins; on March 16, 1.11 billion ARB coins will be unlocked.

Other events: BNB beacon chain testnet Sunset upgrade MODragon NFT holders airdrop 600 ETH; CoinList launches the public sale of MASA tokens of decentralized data network Masa; on-chain voting for the "Activate Uniswap Protocol Governance" proposal; CME launches Euro-denominated micro Bitcoin and Ethereum futures;

Friends of the currency can search for keywords to view more content.

On March 29, the PCE price index for February in the United States. The U.S. Congress has given the Federal Reserve two missions: maximum employment and price stability. For the Federal Reserve, the data around these two goals are the most important, namely employment data and inflation data. Another indicator that the Federal Reserve pays close attention to is retail data, because the United States is a consumption-driven country, and consumption is the core. At this time, retail data has a guiding role for investors in judging the current situation and prospects of the U.S. economy. To judge the next path of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, it is crucial to see through these three data.

Summarize

The crypto market is inherently global. As the entire market grows and develops, its relationship with the traditional world becomes increasingly close, and the corresponding impact it receives is also increasing.

In addition to the above-mentioned factors, there are many other factors that affect market ups and downs. Some affect the foundation of the bull market, and some only affect short-term ups and downs. Although these impacts vary in size, they may be a "catastrophe" for individual investors.

Finally, it should be noted that this information does not constitute investment advice. In the volatile crypto investment market, all coin friends need to remain rational and cautious. Of course, the premise of objective analysis is to master a large amount of industry information.

Conclusion

Around April 28, Bitcoin will start its fourth halving. Due to the US dollar cycle, profound changes in international finance and economy, and the degree of industry development, this halving may be the last clear bull market. As ordinary people, we must seize the opportunity of this wealth explosion, otherwise it will only become more and more difficult in the future.

Historically, the price peaks of the first three Bitcoin halvings all occurred in December of the second year after the halvings, i.e., in December 2013, the first round of Bitcoin halvings reached a peak and began to turn from bullish to bearish; in December 2017, the second round of Bitcoin halvings reached a peak and also began to turn from bullish to bearish. In December 2021, the third round of halvings also passed the peak and took a sharp turn downward, starting to turn from bullish to bearish.

Based on this, the bull market of the fourth round of halving may start from the second half of this year and last until the end of 2025. Of course, the overall environment is different now, and history can only be used as a reference.

At present, as mentioned in the previous article: Bitcoin breaks 60,000, and the market capitalization reaches the highest peak in the past three years. How far is the outbreak of altcoins? : Because the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has not ended, the scale of the inflow of old money from the traditional market into the currency circle is limited. Only some popular or strong currencies in the market will explode in turn, and the degree of explosion is very low. Doubling, three or five times is a very good performance, because the bigger the pond, the bigger the fish. After the halving, Bitcoin will continue to be strong for 3-6 months, that is, around September and October this year, Bitcoin will have risen almost, and funds will overflow, and altcoins will explode. If the Fed also confirms a rate cut at that time, then the season of altcoins - the altcoin season will come completely, and we will see and participate in the birth of 10 times, 100 times, or even 10,000 times "myths".

It is difficult for us to make accurate predictions about the future, but as mature investors, we must always remain in awe of the market, remain patient with the market, and wait patiently for time to give the answers.

Attached is the March financial calendar of the cryptocurrency circle. Please indicate the source when reprinting.