The difference between bankers and retail investors is that big bankers and institutions basically buy when no one cares and sell when there is a lot of people, while most retail investors buy when there is a lot of people and sell when no one cares.

Therefore, after each round of market starts, the attention of retail investors soars, there is an endless stream of people who are short-term, and there are countless people who reach the top.

This round of calf market started after the pie officially exceeded 28,000 points in October last year. The development of the market is like a man who has been single for more than 30 years hiding in the house of Widow Liu in the next village who has been widowed for 10 years on a rainy night. There are no surprises in the plot. 's happened.

After that, the pie exceeded 52,000 points, and Ethereum exceeded 3,000 points. The market is now gradually approaching the 312 mark of the historical abyss, and discussions are rampant about whether there will be a similar round of sharp declines.

At least under the current market sentiment, the captain believes that if there is to be a short-term decline of more than 50%, apart from getting retail investors on board and consuming long leverage, there will not be many benefits to the market itself. .

Differences in the macro-environment dictate that history can only be used as a reference, not as a complete reference. Currently, U.S. stocks are hitting strong new highs, U.S. unemployment data continues to be at new lows, inflation is relatively easing, interest rate cuts are on the agenda, and institutional buying is coming one after another.

If there is going to be a similar crash, at least there will be a black swan bigger than last year's Silicon Valley Bank thunderstorm. Will the market really give it a chance?

The captain is optimistic that this is more difficult. The captain has said before that the bull market's plunge is the best catalyst for bull leverage, and this plunge is controllable.

For example, there have been several consecutive rounds of fluctuations from 53,000 points to 50,500 points recently. The long data was almost completely cleared after two consecutive rounds. Currently, short positions account for more than 90% of the contract positions. It is only right that they continue to rise in the later period.

A problem that can be solved by a 2,500-point decline coupled with back-and-forth fluctuations. In the eyes of the main players whose buying costs and miner costs are both above 40,000 points, why bother to operate with a plunge exceeding 10,000 points?

Let everyone get off the bus, and then continue to create new highs. Wouldn't it be the most beautiful operating logic for Leeks, who have no chips, to take over at the highest point after the extreme FOMO.#热门话题 #BTC