Data observation: The capital side is very bad, while the macro side is very good, like heaven and hell.

North American funds are sad, Asia-Pacific funds are hot, and they are incompatible. I talked with American classmates on the weekend. They think the US stock market is forming a head. It fell for two months, rose for one month, and returned to the high ground. They are also confused. Except for the good macro data, other fundamentals cannot support it. Buffett basically sold short the stocks he could short, such as General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, and Procter & Gamble. Cash holdings: Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves increased to a record $157.2 billion. Don't say that the stock god is old. He issued Japanese bonds to buy the stocks of Japan's five major trading companies at the bottom, which is a unique way. The stock god holds a record cash reserve. Maybe he has sensed something?

At the same time, the event-driven digestion of BTC ETF has been digested, but I never thought that Asia-Pacific funds would be so strong, including BRC20. If you pay attention, KOLs in the English area rarely talk about inscriptions. Most of the traffic comes from OK Wallet, and most of them are Asia-Pacific players. Each person buys 0.2-0.5 BTC for inscriptions, and the base number is 100,000 or more. The BTC support volume is not low. At the same time, the Asian market rose and the US market fell. This has become a normal phenomenon in the past half month. And from

In terms of funds, the outflow of stablecoins from the top 15 exchanges is also mainly due to net outflows from exchanges dominated by foreign players, such as Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase. Exchanges in the Asia-Pacific region showed net inflows, such as OKX, BYBIT, and MEXC. Although the domestic special government bonds + local relief, the M2 increment has remained high, coupled with medical anti-corruption and other situations, a large amount of funds have fled. Whether it is for hidden assets or leaving the country, cryptocurrency has become one of the best means. But can this situation, coupled with the expectation of tight funds at the end of the year, continue?

It's hard to say. In addition, China's holdings of U.S. debt have reached around 800 billion U.S. dollars. This is the official statement, and the actual situation may be even worse. There is a high probability that policies will be implemented to block OTC or cut off cryptocurrency transactions. Although the RMB exchange rate has recently exploded, it can only be slowed down. Recently, we rarely recommend ALPHA currency because the increase is too high, the risk is greater than the return, and the odds are insufficient. We continue to hold the beta chips purchased at the beginning of the year. When the profit is 50%-100%, the principal will be recovered. Always remember: if you have U in your hand, you will not panic.

In the current chaotic market, it is actually difficult to have a foundation for a big bull market. Before each big bull market, there will be a big pit and big turmoil, which will make everyone panic and start to turn to a loose situation. But now, there is a lack of such a moment. Although it has come to this moment, the second round of monetization of shantytown renovation has been launched, which is a bit like the 15-year policy. This will bring a huge amount of social funds, but it has not yet been implemented and needs to be continuously observed.

Wait for two time points: around Christmas. BTC ETF information in January.

Always remember: capital is king, and capital is the source of long-term boost in the market. #HOLD