The 4-hour time frame also clearly shows that Bitcoin has begun an upward correction against a new downward trend. Since the price lows near the level of $40,746 were broken, we fully assume that the downward movement is not yet complete. Of course, as always, many experts are inclined to believe that Bitcoin will rise in price again, but let us remind you that we are not adherents of the point of view of the eternal growth of Bitcoin. At this time, Bitcoin has corrected upward by exactly 50% Fibonacci, so it is quite reasonable to expect a new round of downward movement. Targets are below $38,500. Meanwhile, analysts at CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin miner reserves have fallen to July 2021 lows. Experts also noted a sharp influx of Bitcoin coins to exchange addresses. They believe that a massive sell-off may occur in the next few days, which will lead to an inevitable fall in the rate of the first cryptocurrency. According to them, Bitcoin may fall below $40,000. It is noted that many miners are trying to get rid of their reserves before the “halving”, which is due to occur at the end of April and will lead to a reduction in rewards by 50%. It is also reported that small traders and investors may join the sales amid fears of a strong fall in Bitcoin. As we see, the fall of the first cryptocurrency, as they say, is brewing. Let us recall that, in our opinion, Bitcoin could or can count on growth in 2024 based on three main factors: halving, a reduction in Fed rates and the approval of a Bitcoin ETF. Let us also recall that the market always tries to work out a future event in advance. This is the basic principle of the market: buy on rumors, sell on facts. If so, then the factors for the approval of the Bitcoin ETF and the reduction in Fed rates have already been worked out, because they have been known about them for more than a year. We also believe that Bitcoin’s rise from $15,000 to almost $50,000 was not out of the blue. Investors and traders processed the information available to them.
Thus, we do not expect the first cryptocurrency to strengthen significantly in 2024. Bitcoin ETFs have not led to mass adoption by institutional traders. Halving occurs every four years and cannot double the price of the first cryptocurrency every time. In the near future, we expect a stronger correction than what we have seen in recent weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency began to correct. We believe that the downward movement is not yet complete, and the rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level ($43,768) can be used for new sales. Targets for the new fall are scattered in the range of $38,500-$31,000. We see no reason to resume the growth of the first cryptocurrency at this time.
