Tonight at 21:30, the US August CPI will be released, and the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting is also entering the final window.
Based on the data so far, the policy environment is already clearly more hawkish: August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far above expectations, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. At the same time, August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, meaning inflation pressure has not fully disappeared.
Therefore, market pricing for a 25bp rate hike in September has risen to about 70%, while holding rates steady is priced at around 30%. A rate cut is not the main storyline for now.
What really matters tonight is not whether “CPI rises or falls,” but whether core CPI comes in below expectations.
If core CPI cools meaningfully, expectations for further rate hikes may ease; the US dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure, and BTC and ETH may benefit from a risk-on rebound.
If core CPI comes in above expectations, be alert to rate-hike expectations continuing to heat up, as risk assets may see a quick pullback.
For the crypto market, the most important thing right now is not guessing the direction, but managing your positions and leverage around the time of the data release.
Tonight, it’s recommended to focus on:
① The magnitude of the deviation of CPI from expectations
② US Treasury yields
③ The US Dollar Index
④ Whether BTC can hold key support
⑤ Whether a reverse sweep/flush occurs 15–30 minutes after the data is released
The macro environment is shifting from “rate-cut expectations” to a “battle between inflation and rate hikes.” The truly big move usually doesn’t happen at the very moment the data is released, but starts after the market reprices.
$BTC $ETH
Based on the data so far, the policy environment is already clearly more hawkish: August non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far above expectations, and the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%. At the same time, August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, meaning inflation pressure has not fully disappeared.
Therefore, market pricing for a 25bp rate hike in September has risen to about 70%, while holding rates steady is priced at around 30%. A rate cut is not the main storyline for now.
What really matters tonight is not whether “CPI rises or falls,” but whether core CPI comes in below expectations.
If core CPI cools meaningfully, expectations for further rate hikes may ease; the US dollar and Treasury yields could come under pressure, and BTC and ETH may benefit from a risk-on rebound.
If core CPI comes in above expectations, be alert to rate-hike expectations continuing to heat up, as risk assets may see a quick pullback.
For the crypto market, the most important thing right now is not guessing the direction, but managing your positions and leverage around the time of the data release.
Tonight, it’s recommended to focus on:
① The magnitude of the deviation of CPI from expectations
② US Treasury yields
③ The US Dollar Index
④ Whether BTC can hold key support
⑤ Whether a reverse sweep/flush occurs 15–30 minutes after the data is released
The macro environment is shifting from “rate-cut expectations” to a “battle between inflation and rate hikes.” The truly big move usually doesn’t happen at the very moment the data is released, but starts after the market reprices.
$BTC $ETH
