After several months of dormancy, Bitcoin resumed its uptrend during the week of August 17. It surged 21.99% for the week and broke above $80,000 on August 25.

Upward drivers

Short-term catalyst—short squeeze: Previously, Bitcoin traded sideways around $60,000 for months, while the derivatives market accumulated a large amount of leveraged short positions. Once the price broke above a key level, it triggered forced-cover buy orders, creating a squeeze effect that further propelled the rally.

Sustained support signal:

1. Liquidity: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $420 million over the past five trading days, effectively offsetting early third-quarter pressure from outflows.

2. Policy factors: The Trump administration is promoting crypto regulatory frameworks such as CLARITY. If policy expectations move toward formal passage through Congress, it could reduce the industry’s regulatory risk discount and provide longer-term fundamental support.

Today’s Bitcoin pullback analysis near the $77,000 level

How to interpret the current position

Bitcoin has pulled back from above $80,000 to $77,000, a drop of about 4–5%, within the technical retracement range after a breakout. Structurally, $77,000 is close to the key resistance zone from the prior breakout; the market is currently testing whether it can be converted into support.

Three scenario simulations

Scenario 1: after a pullback confirmation, continuation of upward movement (moderate probability)

If the $75,000–$77,000 range can be defended effectively and ETFs continue to record net inflows, Bitcoin could retest $80,000 after digesting profit-taking, and even push into the $85,000–$90,000 area.

Trigger conditions:

· ETF flows remain in net inflow

· Substantive progress appears for the CLARITY bill in Congress

· Market-wide risk appetite remains stable

Scenario 2: range-bound consolidation (higher probability)

Bitcoin may trade in a wide range between $72,000 and $82,000, digesting the prior rally and waiting for new catalysts. This type of movement is healthier and can build strength for the next upswing.

Trigger conditions:

· ETF capital flows alternate between positive and negative, with no clear trend

· Regulatory policy remains at the expectation stage, with no substantive implementation

· Derivatives market positions rebuild, forming a new long/short contest

Scenario 3: deep pullback after breakout failure (lower probability, but needs to be guarded against)

If $75,000 is lost, it may trigger a new round of profit-taking and stop-loss selling. Refer to the logic of the 0 Gamma point (Coinbase’s $165.77). Bitcoin also has similar key levels; if it breaks below, downside could accelerate toward $68,000–$70,000.

Trigger conditions:

· ETFs show persistent net outflows

· A risk event emerges in the macro market (e.g., inflation surprises, geopolitical conflict, etc.)

· Regulatory policy brings unexpected negative news

Core judgment logic

The nature of this upswing is a technical breakout driven by short-squeeze, not a fundamental, root-level change. The key feature of a short-squeeze is fast speed and large magnitude, but its sustainability depends on whether subsequent capital can step in.

The most important indicators to track right now are:

1. ETF daily net inflow/outflow data: this is the most direct capital-flow signal; it is more important than any technical indicator

2. CLARITY bill progress in Congress: the distance from “expectation” to “implementation” determines the true extent of fundamental improvement

3. The gains/losses around the $75,000 level: this is the line separating the nature of the pullback (healthy retracement vs. trend reversal)

Summary

In the short term, Bitcoin is more likely to be in a consolidation phase that digests the recent rally, with $75,000 as the key dividing line. If it can be held and ETF capital continues to flow in, there is still upside room in the medium term; if $75,000 breaks and the flow turns to outflows, then the pullback should be treated as potentially deepening. It is not advisable to chase after price right now; waiting for confirmation signals is safer.

The above is only a statement of personal views and does not constitute investment advice.