Next week’s market: it’s time to start using data again
Just wrapped up the Jackson Hole, and the message from the Fed/“Powell/Waller” side was clearly more hawkish. Market expectations for a September rate hike have already risen from a bit over 30% previously to nearly 60%. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields moved first, while gold, the Nasdaq index, and BTC instead came under pressure. In fact, this signal has been pretty clear
What’s really worth watching now isn’t whether there will be a rate hike in September—it’s whether next Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls can confirm that expectation.
At the moment, the market expects August Non-Farm Payrolls to increase by about 58,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. This number in itself isn’t particularly strong. If employment continues to weaken, the market may once again bet on “no rate hike.” But if both Non-Farm and wage data come in harder than expected, September rate-hike odds could keep moving upward
Plus, this Non-Farm is a bit special: it’s the final Non-Farm report before the September FOMC meeting—basically the Fed’s last card in hand
Besides Non-Farm, next week also has ISM Manufacturing, ADP, initial jobless claims, ISM Services, the Beige Book, as well as the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. The macro information density is extremely high
Another thread is AI
Dell and Broadcom will release earnings after the close on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively—especially Broadcom. The market expects revenue close to $29.4 billion. Now the AI rally has moved from “telling a story” to validating real demand. Whether servers, custom ASICs, and AI networking equipment can keep delivering high growth—these two earnings reports should provide some answers
From the perspective of the crypto market, I actually think we should be a bit more cautious next week
If Non-Farm comes in weak → rate-hike expectations fall → liquidity expectations improve → BTC and risk assets could see a rebound
If Non-Farm beats expectations → the odds of a September rate hike keep rising → Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → short-term BTC pressure could be amplified further
So over the next few days, don’t just watch the K-line
What may truly determine the direction of the September setup could be in that 20:30 set of numbers on Friday
The macro theme for next week can be summed up in one line:
Employment determines the Fed, AI determines risk appetite, and liquidity determines the outcome
Just wrapped up the Jackson Hole, and the message from the Fed/“Powell/Waller” side was clearly more hawkish. Market expectations for a September rate hike have already risen from a bit over 30% previously to nearly 60%. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields moved first, while gold, the Nasdaq index, and BTC instead came under pressure. In fact, this signal has been pretty clear
What’s really worth watching now isn’t whether there will be a rate hike in September—it’s whether next Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls can confirm that expectation.
At the moment, the market expects August Non-Farm Payrolls to increase by about 58,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. This number in itself isn’t particularly strong. If employment continues to weaken, the market may once again bet on “no rate hike.” But if both Non-Farm and wage data come in harder than expected, September rate-hike odds could keep moving upward
Plus, this Non-Farm is a bit special: it’s the final Non-Farm report before the September FOMC meeting—basically the Fed’s last card in hand
Besides Non-Farm, next week also has ISM Manufacturing, ADP, initial jobless claims, ISM Services, the Beige Book, as well as the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. The macro information density is extremely high
Another thread is AI
Dell and Broadcom will release earnings after the close on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively—especially Broadcom. The market expects revenue close to $29.4 billion. Now the AI rally has moved from “telling a story” to validating real demand. Whether servers, custom ASICs, and AI networking equipment can keep delivering high growth—these two earnings reports should provide some answers
From the perspective of the crypto market, I actually think we should be a bit more cautious next week
If Non-Farm comes in weak → rate-hike expectations fall → liquidity expectations improve → BTC and risk assets could see a rebound
If Non-Farm beats expectations → the odds of a September rate hike keep rising → Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen → short-term BTC pressure could be amplified further
So over the next few days, don’t just watch the K-line
What may truly determine the direction of the September setup could be in that 20:30 set of numbers on Friday
The macro theme for next week can be summed up in one line:
Employment determines the Fed, AI determines risk appetite, and liquidity determines the outcome
