$BTC Honestly, deep down, I actually expect more than anyone else that BTC will pull back to around 40,000.
If we really get to this level, my take can be discussed and held for years.
But reality is right in front of us: that big bullish candle for BTC has pierced through three moving averages in one move, and the overall market structure has completely changed.
I can’t stick to old habits and stubbornly insist that BTC will definitely return to 40,000.
Some people will question: I was looking at 50,000 the other day—so why did my view change so quickly?
To be honest, I’m also afraid—afraid of missing out on this bull market cycle.
Thinking must evolve with the market.
Right now is the early stage of a transition from bear to bull, just like what people in my hometown say: when a young person is just beginning to show their talent, the market is only just starting to wake up.
There’s still a chance to get in, but for BTC in the 50-thousand handle, we probably won’t be waiting for that again.
Opportunities for positioning still exist around 65,000 and 68,000; in the worst case, around 70,000. The probability of this opportunity is at least 50%.
A single misstep can become a lifelong regret—by the time you turn around, the bull market has already gone far.
Every time a bull market starts, the path is never a simple copy of the previous one. Trying to “cut a boat by the sword,” blindly replicating past patterns, will only mislead yourself—and mislead the people around you.
Humble yourself to the trend—there’s nothing shameful about it.
Of course, chasing long positions right now isn’t rational either. If this round can’t break through 8.3W, the market will likely come into a pullback, and most likely trade sideways in the 65,000–72,000 range for 3–5 months.
Then, once one day sees a breakout with strong volume, the bull market’s main surge toward 100,000 will officially begin—this is the scenario I think is most likely to play out next.
Why does the bodhisattva sit upside down? It’s a sigh for all sentient beings who refuse to turn back.
ETH will move in sync with BTC, oscillating as it pulls back to the 1,800–2,000 range—good for staged spot entries.
SOL dropping to 80–90 can be accumulated in batches.
PAXG pulling back to around 4,200–4,300 is worth watching; with multiple central banks continuously increasing large holdings, it’s something to pay attention to.
There are quite a few U.S. stock benchmarks. I’ll break them down one by one later. SPX won’t keep making lower lows; the rebound trend should continue. Previously, I planned long-term positions around 110, and that approach still holds.
Let me be candid here: I’m sorry—I was previously leaning too bearish. The market has already transitioned from bear to bull, and the bull market has only just started to show its head.
I hope the broader market will later offer a pullback. For family members who haven’t set up spot positions yet, you can use the pullback to enter in batches.
That’s all the thinking I can share. I hope everyone can抓紧 the cycle and time it well.
If we really get to this level, my take can be discussed and held for years.
But reality is right in front of us: that big bullish candle for BTC has pierced through three moving averages in one move, and the overall market structure has completely changed.
I can’t stick to old habits and stubbornly insist that BTC will definitely return to 40,000.
Some people will question: I was looking at 50,000 the other day—so why did my view change so quickly?
To be honest, I’m also afraid—afraid of missing out on this bull market cycle.
Thinking must evolve with the market.
Right now is the early stage of a transition from bear to bull, just like what people in my hometown say: when a young person is just beginning to show their talent, the market is only just starting to wake up.
There’s still a chance to get in, but for BTC in the 50-thousand handle, we probably won’t be waiting for that again.
Opportunities for positioning still exist around 65,000 and 68,000; in the worst case, around 70,000. The probability of this opportunity is at least 50%.
A single misstep can become a lifelong regret—by the time you turn around, the bull market has already gone far.
Every time a bull market starts, the path is never a simple copy of the previous one. Trying to “cut a boat by the sword,” blindly replicating past patterns, will only mislead yourself—and mislead the people around you.
Humble yourself to the trend—there’s nothing shameful about it.
Of course, chasing long positions right now isn’t rational either. If this round can’t break through 8.3W, the market will likely come into a pullback, and most likely trade sideways in the 65,000–72,000 range for 3–5 months.
Then, once one day sees a breakout with strong volume, the bull market’s main surge toward 100,000 will officially begin—this is the scenario I think is most likely to play out next.
Why does the bodhisattva sit upside down? It’s a sigh for all sentient beings who refuse to turn back.
ETH will move in sync with BTC, oscillating as it pulls back to the 1,800–2,000 range—good for staged spot entries.
SOL dropping to 80–90 can be accumulated in batches.
PAXG pulling back to around 4,200–4,300 is worth watching; with multiple central banks continuously increasing large holdings, it’s something to pay attention to.
There are quite a few U.S. stock benchmarks. I’ll break them down one by one later. SPX won’t keep making lower lows; the rebound trend should continue. Previously, I planned long-term positions around 110, and that approach still holds.
Let me be candid here: I’m sorry—I was previously leaning too bearish. The market has already transitioned from bear to bull, and the bull market has only just started to show its head.
I hope the broader market will later offer a pullback. For family members who haven’t set up spot positions yet, you can use the pullback to enter in batches.
That’s all the thinking I can share. I hope everyone can抓紧 the cycle and time it well.
