BTC has regained the Bull Market Support Band and the 200-day moving average. This technical combination appeared twice in past bear markets: it failed in 2018, while 2019 and 2023 marked the cycle bottoms with success.
In three instances, it succeeded twice and failed once. This isn’t a 100% signal, but in technical analysis, this historical track record is already worth taking seriously.
The underlying logic isn’t complicated: the 200-day moving average is a reference line for the average cost basis of a large number of long-term holders in the market, while the Bull Market Support Band is an on-chain, data-driven dynamic support range. When both lines are reclaimed at the same time, it means the current price has covered the cost basis of the vast majority of long-term holders—i.e., the cohort that flips from losses to profits, whose willingness to sell drops sharply.
On-chain data confirms the signal in sync: the short-term holder profit rate jumped from 26.1% to 74.9%. As BTC rose from 63,000 to 77,000, these more recent buyers moved from widespread losses to widespread gains.
Historically, after such a fast shift, there’s often a wave of profit-taking—but it can also attract new buying. The scale of that new inflow determines how deep any pullback goes.
ETF flows have been net inflows for 6 consecutive days. On August 24 alone, net inflows reached $338 million, and institutional buying hasn’t exited.
Of course, the risks are still real: today’s PCE data and the GDP revisions—if they come in hot—may strengthen the rationale behind Warsh’s stance at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Analyst Hathorn says: if Warsh’s remarks keep a distance from further tightening, the weak-dollar and low-yield backdrop that underpins this rally can be maintained; if he delivers a hawkish surprise, it could trigger profit-taking.
Both the technical picture and on-chain data are saying there is “structural support,” while the macro picture is saying “don’t get too optimistic before Warsh speaks tomorrow.” Both are true at the same time.
Do you think this reclaim of the two moving averages is a true confirmation of the bottom this time, or will it fail like the 2018 case? Share your view.
$BTC
#BTC
In three instances, it succeeded twice and failed once. This isn’t a 100% signal, but in technical analysis, this historical track record is already worth taking seriously.
The underlying logic isn’t complicated: the 200-day moving average is a reference line for the average cost basis of a large number of long-term holders in the market, while the Bull Market Support Band is an on-chain, data-driven dynamic support range. When both lines are reclaimed at the same time, it means the current price has covered the cost basis of the vast majority of long-term holders—i.e., the cohort that flips from losses to profits, whose willingness to sell drops sharply.
On-chain data confirms the signal in sync: the short-term holder profit rate jumped from 26.1% to 74.9%. As BTC rose from 63,000 to 77,000, these more recent buyers moved from widespread losses to widespread gains.
Historically, after such a fast shift, there’s often a wave of profit-taking—but it can also attract new buying. The scale of that new inflow determines how deep any pullback goes.
ETF flows have been net inflows for 6 consecutive days. On August 24 alone, net inflows reached $338 million, and institutional buying hasn’t exited.
Of course, the risks are still real: today’s PCE data and the GDP revisions—if they come in hot—may strengthen the rationale behind Warsh’s stance at Jackson Hole tomorrow. Analyst Hathorn says: if Warsh’s remarks keep a distance from further tightening, the weak-dollar and low-yield backdrop that underpins this rally can be maintained; if he delivers a hawkish surprise, it could trigger profit-taking.
Both the technical picture and on-chain data are saying there is “structural support,” while the macro picture is saying “don’t get too optimistic before Warsh speaks tomorrow.” Both are true at the same time.
Do you think this reclaim of the two moving averages is a true confirmation of the bottom this time, or will it fail like the 2018 case? Share your view.
$BTC
#BTC
