$ETH is currently in a critical game period ahead of the release of macroeconomic data. The coin price has been oscillating repeatedly in the $2,400–$2,600 range, and the market is focused on capital flows and the Fed’s policy decision. 🧧🧧🧧 ETH has recently seen wide fluctuations between $2,430 and $2,666. After several failed attempts to break through $2,666, it has pulled back. It is currently ranging around $2,500. The overhead resistance levels are $2,550, $2,570, and then $2,666. Only after holding above $2,666 would it have the potential to attempt a push toward $2,700–$2,740. The daily chart has been closing in the red consecutively, overall trend remains weak, and any short-term rebound is likely to be limited. This is a corrective move within a downtrend.
Good afternoon, everyone! Let’s chat and snack on melon seeds about the latest Bitcoin market trend💕—will it be able to break through 80K tonight?📉 #比特币现货ETF净流入1.6亿美元 $BTC
The 24-hour increase is still at 33.64%, but the latest complete 1-hour CAP has already retraced by 3.81%. At 13:41 (UTC+8), Binance public data shows that $CAP perpetual contracts are at 0.06412, with about 153 million USDT in 24-hour trading volume. At present, this underlying has no CAPUSDT spot market, so all conclusions are based only on the perpetual market.
The position has not clearly exited alongside the hourly retracement. The OI quantity has increased by 0.14% in the last hour, and by about 8.13% over roughly 24 hours; however, the latest hour’s nominal OI has fallen by 3.52%, mainly due to the price decline. The directions indicated by price, contract count, and the USD value are not fully consistent, so you cannot draw conclusions from only one metric.
Funding is still deeply negative: the next cycle’s indicated value is about -0.9483%, and the most recent actual settlement was -1.2657%; the latest four settlements have all been negative. Negative funding raises the cost of short positions and may also reflect that perpetuals are trading at a continued discount, which does not necessarily mean the price will keep rising.
I will treat around 0.066 as a short-term strength confirmation level: if it regains and holds above that level with a mild OI expansion, the squeezed structure has continuation conditions; if it breaks below 0.060 and OI contracts in sync, it looks more like a high-volatility phase is starting to cool off. When there is no spot liquidity to cross-validate, chasing price carries the highest risk.
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Bitcoin rebounds—will it continue to rise further?
✅ Reasons for the rebound: Price pulled back to support above the 75,000 level that has been confirmed multiple times in the past, triggering the rebound. Rebound targets: First target at 78,500; next resistance at 80,500. For more cautious investors, take profit around 78,500; spot holdings can take profits in batches.
✅ My view: The market is highly uncertain right now, so it’s not suitable for long-term holding. Tomorrow’s bill, Wednesday’s interest rate hike, and officials’ remarks are all unknown variables. The priority is to lock in existing profits, then re-enter with a heavier position once the market becomes clearer.
During yesterday’s sharp sell-off, I advised setting up spot positions around 76,000; it has now risen nearly 2,000 points. Strategy logic: Buy at support to catch the rebound; take profit at resistance. Do not open positions unless support is reached; if the price continues to surge and approaches the resistance zone, you can try shorting.
Strong resistance is at 81,000–82,000. Attempt shorts in this range; the expected win rate is about 70%. Swing trade based on support and resistance—if the price breaks out, cut losses. In complex market conditions, I’ll keep digging for opportunities and synchronize my real-time trading mindset every day.
Investment isn’t predicting the future; it’s getting ahead of it—staking today’s price from a position in the future. Running away is instinct, enduring is ability. A true investor isn’t someone without fear, but someone who, when fear shows up, still believes in their own judgment.